Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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648 FXUS61 KLWX 300719 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 319 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the South Carolina coast. This will weaken as it tracks northeast along the coastline. High pressure will build across the northeastern United States during midweek. A cold front will approach the east coast Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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Rain is exiting Lower Southern MD. Current round now tracking onto the Eastern Shore. Not a whole lot left to TD Bonnie aside from a stream of moisture tracking north along the coast. This moisture should keep Mid Atlantic in extensive cloud cover with chances for showers...but the best chances will remain in the I-95 corridor and east. Highs should be a degree or two lower than yesterday - low 80s except mid 80s in the cities.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As there is no upper level steering flow to send Bonnie on its way the low will remain to our southeast through Wednesday. This means that the best chances for showers in the coming days will be in the eastern quarter of the forecast area. Believe clouds will lessen each day...especially west of the Blue Ridge as Bonnie loses its tropical characteristics. As we enter the beginning of meteorological summer temperatures will start the season in the moderate range with highs in the lower 80s. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A backdoor cold front will weaken over the area Thursday through Thursday night...and this may lead to a few showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front will pass through from the west on Friday...and this may lead to more showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level trough will develop over the area during the weekend. There is still some uncertainty as to how much moisture will be around since guidance differs on the strength of the cold front that moves through Friday. Will leave the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms...but if the front is stronger then there should be enough dry air advection behind the boundary for dry conditions during the weekend. However...if the boundary is weak then moisture will hang around...elevating the chance for convection. A stronger cold front may impact the area early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Although there will be extensive cloud cover the majority of the time ceilings will be 030 or better. Showers today and Tuesday could cause periodic lowering into MVFR range. Best chance for that will be at DCA..BWI..and MTN. The remnant moisture from TS Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area so clouds can be expected Wednedsay although at VFR levels. A backdoor cold front will weaken over the area Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible along with low clouds. The best chance for low clouds will be during the morning hours and the best chance for convection will be in the afternoon and evening. The backdoor boundary will hang around Thursday night. More low clouds are possible. Another cold front will pass through from the west Friday...bringing a chance for more thunderstorms. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for Saturday...but an upper- level trough will build overhead as well. Therefore...confidence in the forecast for Saturday remains low.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds to remain below SCA values today thorugh Wednesday. Main threat to the waters today will be showers. A backdoor boundary will remain near the waters Thursday through Thursday night before a cold front from the west passes through Friday. Weak high pressure may build in behind the front for Saturday. The gradient should be weak enough for winds to remain below sca criteria during most of this period. However...a few showers and thunderstorms are possible...especially Thursday and Friday during the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL

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