Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280451 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1251 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AFTR CONSULTATION W/ SPC THE TOR WTCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR THE SRN PART OF OUR FCST AREA. COLD FRONT LIKELY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY MONDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST. AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY I-66 AND NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE METROS AND WATERS. NRLY WINDS WIL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH WILL FEEL LIKE A FALL DAY FOR THE MID-ATLATNIC.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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TSTMS HV WEAKENED. CD FNT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED W.V. AND WL MOVE THRU THE MID ATLC STATES DURG THE MRNG HRS. SHRA AND -TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. NW FLOW GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS W/ VFR TUE-THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ON THE BAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT-FRI IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS BUT THAT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ANOMALIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 1/2 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AT HIGH TIDE...WATER LEVELS WOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THESE ANOMALIES. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
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&& $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...BPP/HAS/DFH

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