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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 162245 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
645 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY...BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...CANCELLED POTOMAC RVR OF SCA. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
HAS BEEN QUICKLY REDUCED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THICK OVERHEAD
MID CLOUD DECKS AND MINIMALLY CONVERGENT WSW WINDS. DROPPED POPS
ACROSS THE REGION AND TSTM FORECAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. STILL
A HANDFUL OF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT WHERE THE TEMPS
WERE THE HIGHEST IN THE AREA AND STILL HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS.

FROM PREV DISC...
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA AS MODELS SHOW A CONVERGENCE AREA/TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTH. DURING PEAK HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. BUT WITH THE FRONT NEARBY AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE.

BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET WERE CLOSE AND BLENDED FOR MINIMA
TONIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT COULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...OR COULD BE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER. FAVOR THE FORMER SOLUTION BUT EITHER WAY MODELS SHOW MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IN WESTERLIES...AND WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME
HITTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD BE IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE WATERS...STILL A FEW BREEZES OF THE
BAY W/ THE WEAK SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA NEAR SUNSET.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS