Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
556 FXUS61 KLWX 290327 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1127 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and stall to the south by Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front crosses the area Saturday, stalling over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday and eventually pushing south Monday as high pressure builds in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled. Overnight, the upper trough will move through from the west looks to continue to promote isolated showers...mainly over northern portions of the area. This will all be south of the area by daybreak.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The front should push far enough south on Wednesday and Wednesday night that dry weather will prevail across the forecast area, although there may be some clouds at times given mid-level troughing. Temperatures and humidity will be a notch lower. The boundary will return back north on Thursday and Thursday night as the high moves to the east. GFS continues to be the wettest model on Thursday, but there will be a return southerly flow, so will keep small POPs over southern parts of the CWA. Temperatures and humidity will creep back upward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper trough of low pressure and associated cold front at the surface will move across the region Friday and Friday night. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The timing and placement of precipitation development is uncertain at this time, but given bulk shear around 30 kt, a few stronger storms could occur. Unsettled conditions could linger through much of the weekend as the associated surface cold front lingers just to our south. Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop along this front Saturday through Sunday night. The next storm system will develop along the front at the western end of the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday as the stalled front starts tracking northward as a warm front. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will be concentrated across central and southern Virginia by the end of the weekend. This shower and thunderstorm threat will then propagate north toward the Mason-Dixon line as the newly-formed storm system moves parallel to the Ohio Valley Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will cross from the NW tonight with leading thunderstorms moving SE from DC metros. Depending on how quickly drier air arrives, there could be some fog, but did not feel confident enough to put in the TAFs. VFR in high pressure Wednesday and Wednesday night. Front returns north Thursday and Thursday night, although the probability of precipitation is low. MVFR or IFR conditions possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and thunderstorms. Winds southwest to west 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front over the waters will push south Wednesday and returns north late this week, with a cold front being slow to push into the area this weekend. In general, sub-SCA conditions expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ongoing flooding concerns through into the early morning for Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties from earlier heavy rain. Flood warnings continue.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS NEAR TERM...BAJ/ADS SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/KLW MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KLW HYDROLOGY...BAJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.