Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 260831 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 331 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOPRES S OF CHS ELY THIS MRNG. THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS MADE ITS WAY N INTO CWFA. HWVR...AMS STILL QUITE DRY /DEWPTS IN THE TEENS/. THUS THE INIT PD OF PCPN GOING TWD SATURATING THE LLVLS. W/IN THE PAST HR SNOW HAS MADE IT TO CHO AND NUI. GENERAL GDNC CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THAT ONSET TIME FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA WL BE ARND 09-11 UTC. AT THAT POINT...CWFA WL BE IN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM...W/ PIECES OF VORT ENERGY...STRONG JETMAX OVHD...AND DP MSTR BEING ADVECTED INLAND. THESE INGREDIENT SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH SNWFALL RATES ONCE IT DOES START. AM A LTL CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRY SLOT AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST. WL BE MONITORING THOSE TRENDS TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS WL BE REQD. SYSTEMS WL BE KICKING OUT TO SEA DURING THE AFTN. HWVR... A LOT OF LLVL MSTR WL BE LEFT BHD. IN ADDITION...PIECES OF NRN STREAM VORT ENERGY WL BE ARRIVING BY DAYS END. END RESULT...WL KEEP FCST CLDY THRU THE DAY. NO BIG DIFFS IN MAXT GDNC...AND USED A BLEND TO IRON OUT SMALL SCALE ERRORS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... NRN STREAM TROF AXIS WL APPROACH AREA TNGT...BUT WL BE SHEARING OUT. HWVR...THE COMBO OF PVA/UPR JET/MSTR PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE SHSN OR FLURRIES CUD FALL AT JUST ABT ANY TIME. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION POTL IN FCST. USING CHC POPS TO DO SO FOR TNGT...AND SCHC FOR TMRW. THE WRN UPSLP AREAS WL BENEFIT THE MOST BY THIS PTTN...BUT THAT SETUP WL BE MITIGATED BY A NEARLY FRZN OVER LK ERIE. THEREFORE...MSTR WL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. ONLY HV LIFT FM UPSLP FOR PCPN POTL...WHICH WL CUT BACK TTLS. OVERALL...ENVIORNMENT FOR PCPN WL BECOME LESS FVRBL BY FRI AS SFC HIPRES BEGINS TO BUILD FM THE GRTLKS. STILL NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP FCSTS. MIN-T TEENS AND LWR 20S...MAXT MID 20S-MID 30S. IMPACT OF CAA MOST NOTABLE IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S BY MONDAY MORNING SO A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. LITTLE RELIEF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE NEXT LARGE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BECOME WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE MID-WESTERN STATES AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE COLDER SURFACE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WINTRY MIX TO CHANGE TO RAIN.&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HV DELAYED ARRIVAL OF SNOW...BUT IT STILL IS COMING. MVFR HAS ARRIVED IN CHO...AND XPCT FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO DROP AOB IFR FOR MRNG PUSH. TAFS ONLY REPRESENT THE HIER END OF THAT RANGE...DUE TO INIT UNCERTAINTY AND A DRY AMS. ONCE A SPECIFIC TREND CAN BE DETERMINED...WL ADD LWR CONDS AS APPROPRIATE. RESPONSIBLE LOPRES WL KICK OUT TO SEA BY MIDDAY...BUT A LOT OF LLVL MSTR WL BE LEFT BHD...ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING TROF AXIS. THEREFORE...MADE LATER STAGES OF THE FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC...BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT VFR CONDS WL RETURN TIL SOMETIME ON FRI. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... WINDS NLY AOB 10KT ATTM. HWVR...BELIEVE THAT WINDS WL INCREASE AS LOPRES MVS OFFSHORE AFTER DAYBREAK. WL KEEP SCA IN EFFECT. WNDS WL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TNGT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN IN NW FLOW AS TROF AXIS ARRIVES TMRW. WL KEEP WINDS BLO SCA LVLS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016>018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ004>006- 011-013-014-503>508. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ055>057-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025>027- 029-030-036>040-050>054-501-502-505>507. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028-031. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ053. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...HTS/HAS MARINE...HTS/HAS

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