Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 140852 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 452 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC TODAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ...UPDATED MARINE SECTION BELOW... LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME FOG WITH MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAS DEVELOPED A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40F IN ELEVATED VALLEYS ABOVE THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THERE...BUT NO FROST ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED AS MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY WL ONLY DROP INTO U50S...BUT MUCH OF THE CENTER OF THE FA SHOULD DROP TO THE U40S/A50. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND UPPER 60S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US SUNDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION IN ELEVATED AREAS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80. LOW 70S EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST...AND IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CDFNT SLIPPING OFFSHR TUE MRNG. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHRA ELY. ALTHO ITS NOT VERY LKLY...HV KEPT A CHC E OF I-95. THE HIER PRIORITY FOR THE DAY WL BE THE DRY/CAA ON NW FLOW. MRNG CLDS WL DSPT... PROVIDING A SUNNY AFTN. THERE SHUD BE SOME CONTRIBUTION FM COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SO HV KEPT MAXT IN THE MID 70S. BUT AS WNDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...AM XPCTG TEMPS TO DROP AGN. HV MIN-T IN THE 40S W OF THE BLURDG AND IN N-CENTRL MD. HIPRES WL BE THE CONTROLLING WX FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE WK. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...DAYTIME SKIES WL BE MOSUN. FCST TEMPS COOLER THAN AVG FOR MID SEPT. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. VFR FLGT CONDS XPCTD FOR THE OUTLOOK PD UNDER HIPRES. && .MARINE... SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND THE PATAPSCO RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY...BUT BELOW SCA. A CDFNT WL CLEAR THE WATERS DURING THE MRNG HRS TUE. NW WNDS BHD THE FNT WL PROVIDE A WELL-MIXED ATMOS...W/ WNDS AT THE TOP OF THE LYR SUPPORTIVE OF SCA GUSTS. WNDS WL SUBSIDE AT NGT...AND SHUD REMAIN BLO ADVY CRIT THRU MIDWEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY. WINDS TURN SOUTH AGAIN LATE SUNDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS MONDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530-535-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ531>534-536>538-540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KCS/HTS NEAR TERM...KCS SHORT TERM...KCS LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...KCS/HTS MARINE...KCS/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS

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