Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 222037 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of a passing cold front earlier this morning, high pressure will nudge its way in to the region through early Friday. Another cold front will approach overnight Friday into Saturday before passing through Saturday night. High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the waters late Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front passed through the area this morning, leaving behind gusty northwesterly breezes in its wake. Scattered stratocumulus clouds have filtered in across north central MD, northern VA, and the WV panhandle. Temperatures topped out earlier this morning in the mid to upper 50s, but cold air advection behind the front have dropped temperatures in to the lower 50s in the metro areas and in to the 40s across the western portion of the CWA. Winds will diminish a couple hours after sunset this evening as the gradient relaxes thanks to high pressure building in from the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. With diminishing winds, building high pressure, and clear skies, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to settle in the lower 30s in the city centers and well in the 20s to the west and north. Despite the colder than average temperatures for late November, optimal driving conditions are in store for those travelling for the holiday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build overhead for Thanksgiving Day and Thanksgiving night, resulting in below normal temperatures and dry conditions. High pressure will shift eastward off the DELMARVA peninsula Friday, allowing winds to turn more southerly, which will help temperatures return to more seasonable levels with highs in the low-mid 50s and low temperatures Friday night in the mid-upper 30s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Slight rain chances will be possible Saturday across the western and northern portions of the CWA as the primary energy will remain to the north. At the same time a coastal low pressure system will be moving northeast away from the Carolina coast. At this time, little to no impact is forecast for our area, however should this low move a further northwestward, southeastern portions of the region could see some rain showers. Behind the frontal passing, snow showers will be possible along the typical higher terrain locations, with little to no accumulation expected. Surface high pressure builds on Sunday as an upper trough axis moves east of our CWA. Chilly, breezy, and mostly dry conditions will prevail as any remaining upslope snow showers will wane. Sunday will highlight colder than average temperatures, with most locations not getting out of the 40s, and overnight lows Sunday night similar to tonight. Monday will see high pressure move eastward from the Ohio Valley, migrating off the coast late Monday. With the upper level trough just exiting the region, temperatures will be slightly warmer Monday, yet still below average for late November. Dry conditions expected. Southwest flow returns on Tuesday thanks to the migration of the high to our east, returning temperatures to mid-upper 50s, and breaching the 60 degree mark on Wednesday. Models are in a bit of a disagreement with an approaching cold front Wednesday, so will continue to monitor this situation over the next couple of days to iron out the details and timing. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Gusty northwesterly winds expected to decrease this evening a couple hours after sunset. Scattered stratocumulus clouds that have moved in behind the front this afternoon should dissipate this evening as drier air filters in. VFR conditions will prevail across all the terminals for Thanksgiving Day and Friday as high pressure builds overhead. Mainly VFR conditions expected Saturday, with precipitation possible later that day as a cold front approaches the area. Potential exists for periods of MVFR conditions Saturday afternoon and evening. Drier/VFR conditions expected Sunday into Monday over the terminals. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters tonight as gusty northwesterly winds will start to subside toward Thursday morning. No headlines expected thereafter through Friday night as high pressure builds in overhead. Winds are expected to stay below threshold on Saturday into Saturday night as cold front moves through the area. Winds will increase on Sunday into Sunday night, therefore small craft advisories will be possible. Winds will decrease below SCA threshold on Monday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ531>534- 537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530- 535-536-538-542. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL/BKF NEAR TERM...BKF SHORT TERM...BKF LONG TERM...IMR/BKF AVIATION...IMR/BKF MARINE...BKF/IMR

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