Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 260905 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 405 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE DEEP SOUTH RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. STRATUS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS HAS ERODED INTO PA. AS OF 08Z...STARK TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN AREAS WHICH HAVE DECOUPLED AND THOSE THAT HAVE NOT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TODAY THOUGH WITH NEARLY FULL SUN...WITH THE ONLY INHIBITOR BEING SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MIXING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIP EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE JET STREAM STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OVERALL THE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL AND MILD. TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MEAN WARMER LOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INCH UP...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS TOPPING 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ALONG THE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 00Z/MON AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS DECENT UPLIFT MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT TOWARDS THE MASON- DIXON LINE AT HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THEN COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL FEATURE SEASONAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE AIR MASS IS DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR A FEW WESTERN MTN SNOW SHOWERS WED AND THUR. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE MODEL FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY TODAY BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA-LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .EQUIPMENT... KLWX 88D WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE PARTS TO REPAIR THE RADAR ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS/SMZ NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...SMZ AVIATION...ADS MARINE...ADS/SMZ EQUIPMENT...SMZ

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