Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 181849 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the area through early Wednesday. The next cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon. High pressure builds over New England for the weekend while low pressure moving in from the west will impact the Mid Atlantic Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Clear through early this evening, then clouds increase late tonight across southwest zones with light rain developing due to low-level upslope flow and overrunning. Clouds and rain spread northeastward to northern VA by daybreak and across the rest of the area Wed morning and afternoon as high pressure shifts offshore.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Some light rain is still possible in the evening with a lull/break in precip late Wed night. Low clouds and fog are likely to be the main issue late Wed night. Chances for showers and t-storms increase Thu as instability builds and a lee-side trof develops. Coverage is expected to remain scattered with low risk of severe wx due to weak shear.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Cold front pushes towards the Mid-Atlantic, bringing scattered showers on Friday. Conditions will be become drier behind the front. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s, and lows will reach the 40s and 50s. Dry conditions continue into Saturday, maybe some showers over higher elevations... and PoPs increase over our CWA Saturday night as a low pressure system approaches from the west. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s... low temperatures overnight in the 40s and 50s. Guidance is in disagreement with the track of this low pressure between Sunday and Monday. GFS brings it slower and moving across the Mid-Atlantic with PW over one inch, while the Euro moves it faster and PW below one inch. Expecting dry conditions behind this system.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Clouds increase late tonight with bkn-ovc035 cigs at KCHO and then at all other terminals after 12Z Wed. Potential for MBFR/IFR cigs/vsbys late Wed night into Thu morning. Risk of t-storms Thu afternoo and early evening. Showers possible on Friday as front pushes through our area. Drier conditions expected on Saturday. Showers return Saturday night into Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions possible at times, mainly Friday and Sunday with wind gusts reaching up to 20 kt for parts of this period.
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&& .MARINE...
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Possible SCA across the lower Bay and lower Potomac this evening due to channelling of SE winds. Winds should diminish overnight and remain below SCA through Thu. SCA then more likely Thu night and Fri. Showers possible on Friday as front pushes through our area. Drier conditions expected on Saturday. Showers return Saturday night into Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions possible at times, mainly Friday and Sunday with wind gusts reaching up to 20 kt for parts of this period.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/LFR MARINE...IMR/LFR

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