Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 231424 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will pass through the region today and the associated cold front is expected to slowly move through the area tonight into Friday. High pressure will build overhead for the weekend before moving off the coast Monday. A cold front may impact the area during the middle portion of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A frontal boundary is stretched across the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic regions this morning. One potent shortwave accompanying the MCS moved through earlier...while another is approaching from the west. This will likely concentrate on southern parts of the CWA late this morning into early this afternoon...but additional convection may also fire with more disturbances by this evening. A big question mark for the northern portion of the CWA in particular is just how unstable we are able to get. Right now clouds are pretty dominant in the wake of the MCS...but if the sun can come out for just a bit, the strong June insolation should quickly destablize the area. For the rest of the day most of the CWA has been dropped to high end chance PoPs...but with plenty of strong wind aloft and potential for strong instability should the sun come out, along with high PW`s, we have maintained the gusty wind/heavy rain wording. Highs are dependent on the breaks of sun...so if it stays cloudy all day they may bust high. The frontal boundary will retreat southward tonight as low pressure slides eastward. However, as another shortwave approaches the region, the chance of showers and thunderstorms may persist thru the night especially across the southwestern zones...closer to the front and the more unstable air to the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will push into the region Friday however another shortwave trough will drop into the Ohio Valley. Showers and perhaps thunderstorms are possible especially across the higher elevations Friday. Max temps in the u70s/l80s are expected. High pressure will continue to build into the region Friday night and dry conditions are expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region Saturday through Sunday...bringing build into the region Friday night through Sunday...bringing drier and cooler conditions to the area. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out near the Blue Ridge Mountains and Potomac Highlands...but even across these areas much of the time will be dry. High pressure will move offshore Monday and a return flow will allow for more humid conditions along with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front may pass through the area Tuesday into Wednesday of next week...possibly bringing unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Northern terminals are generally back to VFR with the passage of the MCS earlier today. However... another round of SHRA/VCTS are expected this afternoon with sub-vfr conditions in heavy rain. Gusty winds will also be possible. Prevailing VFR conditions expected tonight through Friday night. Patchy fog may reduce vis at some terminals later tonight and early Friday. In addition... showers/t-storms remain possible so short intervals of sub-vfr are possible. High pressure will bring VFR conditions most of the time Saturday through Sunday. Will have to watch for low clouds Saturday morning due to an easterly component to the low-level flow. High pressure will move offshore Monday and a few showers and thunderstorms are possible. A cold front may impact the terminals during the middle portion of next week with possible showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... S winds will increase on the waters today and SCA conditions are expected. Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and may cause reduced vsbys as well as SMWs. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon on the waters. Winds become nrly tonight and continue through Friday night. High pressure will bring an easterly flow to the area Saturday and Sunday. Winds should remain below sca criteria. The high will move off the coast Monday and a cold front may impact the waters during the middle portion of next week. More showers and thunderstorms are possible during this time. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ003-501- 502. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ027-028- 030-031-503-504. WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ050>053- 055-501>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...HAS/RCM SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/HAS/RCM MARINE...BJL/HAS

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