Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 060311 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1011 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAINING ON RADAR LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE LOW. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIGHT NW WIND. LOW TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LOWS OVER THE HIGHLANDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON NWRN SUBURBS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WESTWARD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS. THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND MIN-T 10-15F. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY. WINDS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A WHILE LATE TONIGHT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES...WHERE GUSTS SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR AT LEAST A WHILE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW. ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL BE MONITORED NEXT WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>006- 501>507. VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>031-040- 501-503>508. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535- 536-538-539-542.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE MARINE...MSE/HTS HYDROLOGY...

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