Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280126 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 926 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL VA ALONG 850 MB FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NRN AREAS REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START LIFTING NORTH AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND SFC/850MB WAVE ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER SPREAD/MOVE EAST. RAIN APPEARS LIKELY EAST AND DEFINITE WEST AS H85 FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR IN THE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE EXCEPT HIGHER IN UPSLOPE AREAS. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN THU NIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... PTTN REMAINS UNCHGD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...AS STALLED FRONT POISED S OF CWFA. ANY S/WV RIDING ALONG THIS BNDRY CUD TRIGGER A FEW SHRA. THERE WONT BE MANY SUBSTANTIVE CHGS TO THE FCST GIVEN THESE SUBTLETIES...AND THE CHALLENGES W/ FORECASTING THEM THIS FAR OUT. ONE KEY FEATURE THAT IS DISCERNABLE ATTM IS THE CLOSED LOW ACRS THE PLAINS OPENS UP AND TRAVERSES THE CONUS DURING THE PD. THE SFC REFLECTION WL MIGRATE EWD AS WELL...ALONG THE BNDRY... WHICH WL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR SHRA. THEREFORE WL INCR POPS TO LKLYS THU MIDDAY THRU MIDNGT. BYD THAT IT IS UNCLR HOW MUCH MSTR THE SUBSEQUENT VORT WL HV... EXACTLY WHERE IT WL TRACK...AND HOW STRONG IT WL BE. WL REVERT BACK TO CHC POPS FOR FRI. FEW TEMP CHGS DURING THE PD AS WELL. IT WL BE TOUGH FOR MUCH OF MD TO CRACK 60 DEGF...SPCLY ON THU. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OVERRUNNING WARMTH AND MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER ENERGY SHOULD EXIT THE EAST COAST TUESDAY TO ALLOW FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE WAY. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSTTLD PTTN THRU THE TAF PD...AND THRU THE END OF THE WK FOR THAT MATTER. STALLED FRNTL BNDRY S OF THE TERMINALS. ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING MARINE STRATUS/STCU. WL STICK MAINLY W/ MVFR FLGT CONDS. CUD BE A FEW SHRA INVOF CHO THIS EVNG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. BETTER CHC AT SEEING SHRA THU PM. PDS OF IFR PSBL TNGT...AND SPCLY THU AFTN-NGT. HV NOT PLACED AOB IFR IN ANY TAF ATTM. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRI. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS NORTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR OR IFR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. && .MARINE... ONSHORE FLOW WL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WKND. WIND SPDS AOB 10-15 KT THRU THE PD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE BAY AND POTOMAC. ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO RAISE WATER LEVELS FURTHER WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT ANNAPOLIS...SOLOMONS AND STRAITS POINT THU MORNING. WILL LEFT NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HTS/KLW MARINE...HTS/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR

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