Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281853 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FLAT CU FIELD HAS FORMED AND THINK THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL VALLEYS/RURAL AREAS. LOWS WILL INCH UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS....WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SFC HIGH INCHES EAST ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GET SHEARED OUT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING ENDS UP JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE ESTABLISHED. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOKS FAIRLY STABLE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SOUTH/WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS COULD BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE MORE MILD...WITH MID 60S COMMON TO AROUND 70 IN THE URBAN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WX LOOKS TO RMN FAIRLY QUIET TO END THE LAST WKND IN AUG. HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE..THE NEXT CD FNT IS HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE W...AND ERIKA IS BTWN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS WL LV THE MID ATLC IN A WARM AIR MASS. HIGHS SUN U80/L90S...SUN NGT MU60S XCPT L70S ALONG THE BAY/IN CITIES. NO REAL CHG XPCTD FOR MON. ISOLD CNVTCN SUN-MON WL BE PSBL W/ INCRSG HUMIDITY...PRIMARILY OVR THE MTNS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND STALLING WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW CENTER THAT FORMS OVER AREA TUESDAY WILL STAY THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MEAGER DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING LATTER HALF. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CU FIELD AOA 5KFT MAY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY SCT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR BR AT CHO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AT MRB AS WELL. SIMILAR POSSIBILITIES OF BR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT. VFR CONDS XPCTD SUN/MON. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT IAD/MRB/CHO BOTH NGTS. ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS PSBL BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY OVR THE APLCHNS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST SATURDAY AND PROVIDE DRY WX. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SPEEDS OF UP TO 15 KT ON THE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES SUN AND MON. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...ADS/WOODY!/CEM

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