Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 070130 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRES HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY IN RETURN FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO SLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...LOW 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID 60S EAST...WITH LOW 70S IN THE URBAN AND NEAR SHORE AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE HEAT SHOULD BE ON THE RISE BOTH MON AND TUE...ALTHO STILL NOT THE OPPRESSIVE TYPE THAT CAN BE XPRNCD AT THIS TIME OF YR. HIGHS IN THE L90S BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH MU90S TUE..BUT THAT IS BLO HEAT ADVSRY CRITERIA. THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOWS IN THE U60S MON NGT...LM70S E OF THE MTNS TUE NGT. A CD FNT IS XPCTD TO BE MOVG OUT OF MI MON EVE...AND MOVG SLOWLY INTO WRN PA TUE EVE. THERE`S A CHC FOR TSTMS IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA MON NGT...AND INCRSG CHCS ACROSS THE RGN ON TUE...BUT THE BEST CHCS FOR SVR WX IN THE MID ATLC LOOK TO BE WED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SEMI-STATIONARY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING E-W ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION WILL HELP KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY FRI...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SAT. APPROACH OF A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. NO REALLY HOT TEMPS FORESEEN IN THE XTND PORTION AS UPR LVL PATTERN WL INVOLVE A WRN U.S. RDG PLACING THE E CST UNDER A TORF. HIGHS IN THE MU80S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVS.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS THRU MON NGT. SWLY FLOW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHCS FOR TSTMS WL BEGIN TO DVLP AT TAF SITES TUE...BUT BETTER CHCS EXIST ON WED.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SWLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT...THEN FOR MD WATERS SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. SSW WINDS THRU MID WEEK ACROSS THE WATERS. SRLY CHANNELING WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS OVER THE MID TO LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC TUE AND WED. AFTN AND EVENING TSTM CHANCES TUE THROUGH THU ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUE...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WED AND THU.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537- 539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538-542.
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&& $$ UPDATE...JACKSON

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