Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 240801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME MAINTAINING
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
START THE DAY. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION AND PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHLANDS. FURTHER EAST...DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH DEWPTS AROUND 15-20DEG MOVING INTO NE
MD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT BY LATE MORNING. LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH DEWPTS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S/L70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BEGIN. CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ADVECT WARM CONDITIONS WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S AND 70S IN THE MTNS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A CU FIELD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED.

THE LOW WILL VENTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A
WARM FRONT IS TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF THE MD/PA BORDER. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THEREFORE WETTER
ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF THE MD/PA BORDER.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE REGION WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
80S. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU IN STRENGTHENING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WED NIGHT AND TRACK EWD INTO THE
APPALACHIAN REGION THU. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLC. ATTM...MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE AREA
IN THE COOL SECTOR BRINGING MODERATE RAINS TO THE REGION. LOW PRES
THEN PUSHES EAST LATE THU NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME S
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS INCREASE TO 10- 15 KTS MONDAY. SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHRA/VCTS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS G 25KTS TUESDAY.

LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS WINDS BECOME FROM
THE NE BEHIND A CDFNT WITH MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME S TONIGHT AND INCREASE ON
THE WATERS MONDAY AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST UNDER. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND THEN
AGAIN FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY TODAY WITH RH`S DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. MOISTURE RECOVERS SOMEWHAT MON BUT
STILL WITH CRITICAL RH`S. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH
LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT MON. WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
ON TUE WITH RH`S UNLIKELY TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. SPSS
MAY BE NEEDED BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530-531-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR
FIRE WEATHER...LFR



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