Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 200041 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 841 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the area into Monday, before weak low pressure crosses the area Monday night. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with Canadian high pressure then building over the Mid-Atlantic into Thursday. A warmup is then expected into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Relatively quiet weather overnight as southward-moving high pressure that is currently situated over Ohio slides through the area. Lows tonight dropping into the low 30s. Some localized fog is possible...should areas fully decouple and skies clear. High- resolution ensemble guidance (e.g., NARRE/HREF) suggests the best possibility for this would be across central/eastern MD...though it is currently low probability. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridge shifts south from the area Monday with light/variable flow becoming southerly. Sunny at sunrise with increasing high clouds ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Max temps mid to upper 50s - near normal (only the second at or above normal in the past 10 days). A shortwave crosses the area Monday evening/into the overnight with a quick round of rain showers across the area and one to two tenths inch qpf. Subarctic cold front approaches Tuesday with another shortwave crossing the area Tuesday night with the cold front. Rain changes to snow on the northern fringe of precip and in the mountains. Some more elevation dependent light snow accumulations are possible by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An area of strong high pressure will build southward from the Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday night. Drier air and colder temperatures will be ushered into the region. This high pressure will move to the coast Friday and Friday night to allow for a return flow and milder air to develop for the mid- Atlantic. A cold front will sag across the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night, possibly reaching the Mason-Dixon line later Saturday night. A chance for rain showers will develop during this period. The chance for rain showers linger on Sunday as a warm front connects to the tail-end of the cold front and a disturbance follows along the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through Wednesday as low pressure moves east of the area and surface high pressure builds in from the west. Skies clear tonight and in areas that the wind calms...localized fog is possible. Rain showers Monday night from a weak low and then another low along a subarctic cold front Tuesday night will have rain possibly ending as snow. Vfr conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 to 25 knots Wednesday. Winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night. Winds light and variable Thursday, becoming south 5 knots Thursday night. && .MARINE... SCA force north winds (gusting around 20 knots) slowly diminish through tonight as low pressure off the Delmarva drifts further east. SCA possible Tuesday as high pressure builds with north winds. A strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with SCAs starting that night. At least small craft advisories Wednesday as a subarctic cold front crosses the area. Small craft advisories possible into Thursday. No marine hazards Thursday and Thursday night. Winds northwest 15 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots Wednesday. Winds becoming north 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Wednesday night. Winds diminishing Thursday. Winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ530>532-536- 538>541. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ533-534-537- 543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE NEAR TERM...BAJ/MSE SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/KLW MARINE...BAJ/MSE/KLW

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