Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 300250 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN COOL AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... MAXIMA AVERAGED 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. IT FELT MORE LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU IN PLACE...EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME AFTER DARK...BUT MAY HOLD ONTO ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH CLOUDS AND DRY AIR...ANY FOG WOULD BE PATCHY AT WORST AND GENERALLY PROBABLY JUST WITHIN A COUPLE OF FOG PRONE SPOTS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT NOT DISAPPEAR THROUGH THRU THE MIDDLE WEEK. WINDS WILL WEAKEN...BUT VEER TO THE SW...THEN S ALLOWING FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO REBOUND SLOWLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS. SPC EVEN HAS A SMALL HAIL THREAT JUST OVER THE APPS IN OHIO FOR WED. GFS AND NAM MOS BOTH SIMILAR FOR TEMPS SO LARGELY WENT WITH THEM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 500MB CUT-OFF NORTH OF GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING TO NORTHEAST. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES THEN SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY SHIFTING MOISTURE ADVECTION AWAY FROM CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE HYPER LONG TERM...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAY FORM THIS WEEK...CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. NO EFFECTS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER THAT...AS ALWAYS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MORE INFO ON IT CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS NHC WEBPAGE. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JUST A SLGT CHC OF MVFR BR AT CHO LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 KT OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY. THROUGH REST OF FORECAST...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY HAVE LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS WE/VE APPROACHED SUNSET. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED...BUT SOME SENSORS ARE STILL SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15 KT. THESE SHOULD FURTHER LESSEN OVERNIGHT FOR 10 KT OR LESS. BY WEDNESDAY...HIPRES OFFSHORE WL PROVIDE GNLY LGT WNDS TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW THU WL START TO BACK ELY FOR FRI-SAT. PROGGED SUSTAINED SPDS AOB 10 KT. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THRU SUNDAY. && .CLIMATE... NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BELOW IS A LIST OF FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECORD VALUES FOR JULY 30TH. SITE...RECORD (YEAR)...FORECAST... DCA....56 (1914).......59......... BWI....56 (1997)*......58......... IAD....51 (1981).......53......... *ALSO OCCURRED IN 1981 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP/CAS NEAR TERM...BPP/CAS SHORT TERM...CAS LONG TERM...CEM/CAS AVIATION...BPP/CAS MARINE...BPP/CAS CLIMATE...DFH

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