Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 281903 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE MAIN BATCH OF PCPN HAS MOVED N/NE OF CWFA. IN THE CLEARING IN ITS WAKE...SCT TSRA HV DVLPD. THESE STORMS FORMED IN A WARM/UNSTBL AMS...BUT ARE ENTERING A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE THE THUNDER ASPECT TO ERODE...BUT SHREA SHUD BE ABLE TO TRACK ACRS CENTRAL VA. HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS MINIMUM...AND GRDLY NUDGE THEM UPWD INTO THE ELY EVNG. HGTS WL BE RATHER ZONAL AND STABLE OVNGT...W/ ANY PVA GNLY N OF CWFA. THERES NOT MUCH TO DRIVE ADDTL PCPN PRODUCTION...OTHER THAN THE OVERRUNNING PTTN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...LLVLS REMAIN MOIST. WL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS BUT SWITCH TO A RADZ SOLN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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ZONAL H5 FLOW/ELY SFC FLOW WL CONT INTO FRI...AS S/WV ENERGY TRACKS EWD N OF CWFA. CHC POPS PREVAIL...HIEST NEAR THE PA BRDR. DONT BELIEVE PCPN WL BE ALL THAT MEANINGFUL. WL HV WEAK RDGG IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV FRI NGT. THIS IS THE BEST CHC AT A DRY PD FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. AFTER LINGERING EVNG POPS... PRESERVED 10 POPS/PATCHY DZ WORDING FOR THE OVNGT HRS. WAA/ISENT LIFT IMPRV SAT-SAT NGT AS AN AMPLIFIED TROF AXIS IN THE SRN PLAINS EJECTS TWD CWFA. POPS WL BE STAIR-STEPPED UPWD AS THIS FORCING APPROACHES. LKLY SHRA BY SAT NGT. IT CUD BE ERLR PENDING ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER GDNC RUNS. CWFA WL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED BNDRY THRUT THIS PD. TEMPS REFLECT A MDL BLEND/PERSISTENCE TYPE FCST...WHICH CAPTURE THE LACK OF DIURNAL RANGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRESS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ON SUN... MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING SHOWERS TO OUR CWA. THE LOW PRESS WILL TRACK EAST AND MOVE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON... WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TUE TO WED NIGHT CONDITIONS... WITH GFS BEING DRIER... BUT BRINGING SHOWERS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUE... WHILE EURO KEEPS A BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR SE AND WAVES OF LOW PRESS MOVING THROUGH IT... THEREFORE KEEPING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FLGT CONDS SHUD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THRU SAT-- MAINLY MVFR BUT PDS OF IFR...SPCLY AT NGT. PCPN POTL REMAINS HIT-OR-MISS. FRI NGT MAY END UP BEING THE DRIEST PART OF THIS FCST...BUT THAT MAY ALSO MEAN THE FOG CUD BE THE DENSEST. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN-EVE SAT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS FRONTS AND LOW PRESS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION... MAINLY SUN INTO MON NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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ELY FLOW 10-15 KT ATTM...WHICH WL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT CPL OF DAYS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDS THRU SAT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA. SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY SUN INTO MON NIGHT.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING AND AS HIDE TIDE AS PASSED...WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE HIDE TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS...BUT FRIDAY MORNINGS CYCLE MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/HTS MARINE...IMR/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJM

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