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762
FXUS61 KLWX 010757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the area through the day today
before beginning to slide offshore Sunday. Dry conditions and
below normal temperatures will continue as a result into the
start of the weekend. Temperatures start to warm with increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday into the middle part of
next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will continue to be overhead this morning and
throughout the day today with light northwest flow becoming
more southerly by the end of the day. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas with
mostly dry conditions. A few high cirrus clouds will continue to
trickle through the area later today as a more moist airmass
approaches the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Overnight
lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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By Sunday, high pressure will begin to move further offshore
with a weak area of low pressure moving in from the Ohio
Valley. A few showers will be possible along and west of the
Blue Ridge early in the day, with better chances for an isolated
thunderstorm and scattered showers further east later in the
afternoon and evening before tapering off early Monday.
Afternoon highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s for the
mountains and mid to upper 70s to low 80s further east across
the lower elevations.

Monday has trended drier as the closed upper low continues to
pivot further away from the area later in the day. Still
maintained slight chance to chance PoPs on Monday given the
residual low-level moisture lingering around. Highs will
continue to climb into the low 80s for the lower elevations with
mid to upper 70s more common in the mountains. Overnight lows
Monday night will drop down into the upper 50s to low 60s with
mostly dry conditions.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Brief and weak ridging overhead on Tuesday likely yields dry
conditions for most of the area. Scattered showers will be possible
though, primarily along and west of the Blue Ridge.

Heading into midweek and onwards, guidance diverges somewhat. While
consistent on bringing a frontal system into the region Thu/Fri,
they differ on minor disturbances ahead of the system. If there is
available forcing on Wednesday from these disturbances, shower
activity is possible, but the absence of these features (like in the
18z ECMWF) produce a drier solution Wednesday. Guidance has also
been inconsistent on if the upper trough associated with the frontal
system cuts off as it moves into the Great Lakes. Regardless, the
end of next week appears wet.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to persist through most of the day
on Sunday. By early Sunday, some of the western terminals
(KCHO/KMRB) may see a few isolated showers before the remaining
terminals further east increase their chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms later in the day. Brief ceiling
restrictions are possible during this time. VFR conditions
continue Monday into Tuesday with light northerly winds on
Monday turning more southeasterly by Tuesday.

VFR conditions are mostly expected both Tuesday and Wednesday, but
any afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms could bring
restrictions to the terminals.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA winds are expected to persist through Monday as high
pressure influences the waters and keeps the pressure gradient
tamed for the time-being. Southerly flow kicks back in on Sunday
along with increasing low-level moisture, setting off the
potential for showers and a few thunderstorms over the waters.
Cannot completely rule out a Special Marine Warning during this
period but the probabilities remain low given the convective
setup of this disturbance.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms moving over the waters during the afternoon and
evening hours could bring stronger gusts. Special Marine Warnings
cannot be ruled out.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADM/EST
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...ADM/CAS
MARINE...ADM/CAS