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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 240758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

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A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

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AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY.

THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

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LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

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PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 5 KFT.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.
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&&

.MARINE...

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NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SCA IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES THIS EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.
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&&

.FLOODING...

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WE ARE WATCHING THE SENECA CRK AT DAWSONVILLE. DUAL POL ESITAMTED
OVR 3" OF RAIN IN NRN MONT/WRN HOWARD. CRK HAS RESPONDED BY RISING
FM 2 FT TO OVR 6 FT..WHICH IS OVR A FT BLO MINOR FLD STAGE. WE/MARFC
WL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS.


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
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&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!