Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 301858 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... DEEP MISTURE LOOKS TO RMN OVR THE GULF STATES TNGT AND MON...BUT THE MID ATLC IS XPCRNG MID/HIGH CLDS OUT WELL AHD OF A WK LOW ALONG THE GA/AL BRDR. THE CLD CVR HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGS AND LIMIT LOWER LVL INSTABILITY. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE ISOLD TSTMS FORMING OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. LOWS U60S/L70S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... SAME PATTERN PERSISTS MON. HIGHS WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE L90S. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS AND NEAR SHORE. MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR MOST. SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN. && .MARINE... WINDS PRNTLY BLO SCA VALUES. LAST EVE THERE WERE HINTS THAT SRLY CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO GUSTS 0F 20 KT...AND THAT DID HAPPEN FOR SVRL HRS AT TPLM2 LAST EVE. THE WRF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG FOR THIS EVE...SO WL AGN HOLD AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THINGS DVLP. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES DURG MON. WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR

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