Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 061843 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 243 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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WX STORY FOR THE RMNDR WL BE THE PTNL FOR RW/TRW. ONE STORM HAS DVLPD IN NERN ALLEGANY CO...ALONG W/ SCT RW OVR THE MTNS. THESE ARE MOVG SLOWLY ESE. LK YDA THE WIND FIELD IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DVLPMNT OF SVR STORMS GIVEN THE LGT WINDS ALOFT. CAPE LOOKS TO BE ARND 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVE BUT VERY LTL SHEAR. A PULSE SVR TSTM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...BUT MOST LKLY BRIEF HVY RA W/ SUB SVR GUSTS. AFTR THAT NO PROBS W/ THE OVRNGT PD. LGT FOG WL AGN BE PSBL. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE..SLTLY WARMER IN THE CITIES AND COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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FNT IS XPCTD TO DISSIPATE OVR THE MID ATLC THU THEN WK INDUCED HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. PERHAPS SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE SOME HIGH CLDS AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRES AREA OFF THE GA/SC CST. HIGHS GNRLY ARND 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE AMONG THE MOST TRANQUIL OF THE PERIOD...YET STILL FEELING A LITTLE MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN SPRING. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ITS EFFECTS ON THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THERE WON/T BE MUCH FORCING TO TAP INTO IT THOUGH...AND IT APPEARS ANY PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION TIED TO THE TERRAIN...AS LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED. AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVELS (DEW POINTS AROUND 60F) AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION AROUND DAWN. WHILE THIS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR UNDER THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE TIME BEING AS FOG WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON SUBTLE INFLUENCES. WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH MORNINGS. HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY. HEAT AND DAILY ISOLATED AFTERNOON T-STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR THE LONG TERM...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AND A DECENT MOISTURE FETCH FROM GOM AND LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST. MOST DAYS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 80S...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST (HIGH TEMPS M/U 80S)...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M/U 60S...AND MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FOR MAY. COULD START APPROACHING RECORD HI MINS TEMPS AT A SOME LOCATIONS SUN/MON NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AFTN CU HAS DVLPD...ALONG W/ SCT RW OVR THE APLCHNS. THESE ARE MOVG TO THE ESE AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 19Z AND 01-02Z. THESE ARE NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE GUSTS INXS OF 30KT. LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT...ESPECIALLY AT IAD/MRB/CHO. THEN VFR FOR THU. SUBVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FAVORING THE MORE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS. CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO WX IMPACTS FRIDAY. S/SE WINDS UNDER 10 KT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT NEAR AFTERNOON T-STORMS...WHERE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT AND THU. SCT TSTMS ARE PSBL LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE WHICH COULD PROMPT ISSUANCE OF AN SMW. LITTLE TO NO WX IMPACTS ON THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT...AND LIKELY LESS THAN 10 KT MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING SCA CONDS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE

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