Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280743 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 343 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. High pressure builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... A wet midday seems likely for much of the area today as an upper level short wave tracks across the Mid Atlantic. Have upped PoPs during from ~10am-3pm but then precip chances will diminish during the late afternoon, although short range model still implies scattered showers could develop post-frontal. SPC continues to maintain maringal risk of severe thunderstorms east of the mountains. SREF severe probabilities imply the chances are better across SE VA/NC than in our area, Bufkit profiles show neither high CAPE nor shear, and this will be coming through fairly early in the day. Highs expected to reach the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be building into the area tonight through Wednesday night. Patchy fog will likely develop tonight with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Plenty of sunshine is expected Wednesday. Winds from the north expected to gust up to 20 mph. Temperatures will top out in the 60s. And with the high to our north Wednesday night excellent radational cooling conditions are expected. This will drop temperatures into the 30s west of I-95. A warm front is forecast to be well to our south Thursday. Clouds will be increasing as the day progresses. It will be cool and dry. Highs in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A low pressure system will be moving out of the Mississippi Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. This will send a surge of warm and moist air advection across the area Thursday night. While best forcing may lift north of the area, chances for showers will be on the increase Thursday night. The system will push to the eastern seaboard on Friday. Current model solutions depict fairly disjointed system, but do show potential for some consolidation/redevelopment of the surface low downwind of the strongest upper level energy Friday night. Thus will see highest chances of organized rainfall from Friday into Friday night. Temperatures during this time shouldn`t see a whole lot of diurnal variability with increased clouds/moisture/rain, generally 40s at night, 50s during the day. The low will pull eastward away from the coast on Saturday. Could have some lingering showers, but will see a drying trend during the day. High pressure will build into the region by Sunday with dry conditions. The next system will eject out of the Plains and may approach the area early next week. Highs generally low to mid 60s Saturday through Monday, with lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR at all sites at the moment but believe light fog could develop in the pre-dawn hours. An upper level disturbance will cross the area during the 14-20Z time period. Showers are expected and isolated thunderstorm will be possible. VFR conditions expected tonight through Thursday. Chances for sub-VFR conditions increase by Friday and continue through Friday night with potential for low ceilings and visibilities in rain with low pressure system crossing the region. Conditions will improve through the day on Saturday. && .MARINE... Isolated thunderstorms during the midday hours, especially possible over the lower Potomac/Ches Bay south of Drum Point. An SCA has been issued for Wednesday. Northerly winds are expected to gust to 20 kt. Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions increases Thursday night and Friday with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching system. Winds will then turn north/northwesterly on Saturday behind the system, with continued potential for SCA conditions. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>543. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/MJM

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