Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 231427 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1027 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY INSTEAD OF LATE MAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED. UNSEASONABLY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE INFLITRATING FROM THE WEST AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TODAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TO COMPENSATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 50S OVER THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A 500MB UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE. THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF JULY AS OPPOSED TO LATE MAY. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOST EXTENSIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY WEAKENS A BIT. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. BREEZY WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH THE HIGH PASSING OVER THE AREA AT PRESENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME TO SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM/BJL NEAR TERM...RCM/KRW SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/RCM/KRW MARINE...BJL/RCM/KRW

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