Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 221915 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 315 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AND PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 18Z...1027MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN MO WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE UPR MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WITH A CENTER NEAR PITTSBURGH TONIGHT THE WRN PARTS OF THE CWA SHOULD COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW SOME FROST IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (FROSTBURG, BUT NOT CUMBERLAND). MIN TEMPS MID 30S OUT THERE...LOW TO MID 40S PIEDMONT AND WEST...UPR 40S COASTAL LOWLANDS...MID 50S URBAN AND NEARSHORE. MID 50S WOULD BE COOLEST NIGHT AT DCA OR DMH (MD SCIENCE CENTER) SINCE MAY 19.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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SUNNY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 70F. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SERN STATES PROBABLY ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENING THE LOWER LAYERS AND RAIN STARTING AT LEAST IN THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER WEST WITH PRECIP THAT THE GFS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ECMWF 500MB CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TO EXTEND INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS MODERATE PVA... MOIST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COUPLED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NWLY GUSTS TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NLY FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM FOR NWLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SCA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ501. VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ503-504. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ501>503- 505-506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BAJ MARINE...BAJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

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