Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 051445 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER. 14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT. && .MARINE... LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA TOWARD MONDAY EVENING. OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...SEARS/CAS MARINE...BAJ/CAS

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