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000
FXUS61 KLWX 151841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT ON
TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP BUT WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD...CUMULUS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY FLAT AND THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OCCASIONALLY BLOWING 10 TO 15 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP. EXPECT TONIGHT TO REMAIN DRY...BUT
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. 12Z GFS
INDICATES REMNANT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...PERHAPS LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE...A LEE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND INSTABILITY MAY ONLY BE
MODEST SO THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.
STILL...DURING PEAK HEATING A FEW STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.

BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV WERE GENERALLY CLOSE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND BLENDED FOR TEMPERATURES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STORMS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING. COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY...MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME OF CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. AM HESITANT TO TO REFLECT THIS TOO MUCH
AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN BOUNDARY IN PLACE DURING
DAYTIME HEATING.

FOLLOWED HPC IDEA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ON TUESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
THEN...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO
RESOLVED WITH TIME. AT THIS POINT...CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE/LOW
LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BELOW CLIMO
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE AROUND CLIMO FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST.
CONTINUE THE SCA IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MODELS SUGGEST 20 KT GUSTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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POSITIVE DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
WHILE APAM2 SURPASSED ITS MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD BLTM2 FELL JUST
SHORT DURING HIGH TIDE AND EXPECTATION IS NOW FOR HDGM2 TO BE
BELOW AS WELL FOR ITS UPCOMING HIGH TIDE. AS SUCH...CANCELLED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-
     537-543.
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&&

$$
BPP