Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 120133 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 933 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT IS TRACKING EAST OF I-95...ANW WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BRINING WARM SOUTHERLY AIR TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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COLD FRONT NOW PRETTY WELL THROUGH THE CWA. HV BEEN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT TEMP DROPS BEHIND THE LN. LOWS WL RANGE FM THE MU40S TO THE M50S IN THE CITIES. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SRLY FLOW. THE DAY WL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THE RETURN FLOW SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LM 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUIET WX WEEKEND WILL STAY W/ US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE ATLC COAST - THE BEST POSITION FOR ONE TO BE IN FOR WARMER WX OVER THE MID ATLC. THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH LIKELY ON SUN...AS TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO APPROACH - IF NOT BREACH THE 80F DEG MARK...WELL BELOW ANY RECORD VALUES BUT WELL ABOVE WHAT WE`VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO EARLY THIS YEAR. AVG HIGHS ARE IN THE M60S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WE`LL BE WELL ABOVE THAT BOTH SUN AND MON AFTN. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW SUN ANGLE IN MID APRIL...KEEP SUNSCREEN IN MIND AND FLUIDS NEARBY IF PLANS ARE TO SPEND PART OR MUCH OF THE DAY OUTDOORS. AFTER A COOL/COLD WINTER SEASON...THE BODY MAY NOT BE SO ACCLIMATED TO SUCH WARM CONDITIONS IF OUTDOORS FOR SEVERAL HRS - SO MAKE PREPARATIONS AS IF IT WERE AN `AVERAGE SUMMER DAY`. GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A PART OF THE STORY BOTH SUN AND MON AFTNS...W/ THE ENHANCED FLOW DUE TO THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EAST COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARMER W/ L50S ON SAT NIGHT AND U50S SUN NIGHT...A GOOD 10-20F DEG ABOVE AVG. LATE MON EVE...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BE INCHING ITS WAY TOWARD THE APCLNS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON INTO TUE. THE 12Z GFS A BIT FASTER IN TERMS OF PRECIP ONSET...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST EURO W/ SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON EVE BUT STAYING MAINLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWA - MORE COVERAGE INTO EARLY TUE MRNG FURTHER EAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT AND ASSCD PCPN CRSG AREA TUES INTO WED MRNG. BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING IS TUES MRNG AND AFTN. ACCORDING TO GFS...VORT TRAINING ACRS AREA TUES THRU WED AFTN. WK VORT MAX DUE FRI. LATE SEASON CD AIR MVS INTO REG LT TUE NGT AND WED. ALTHOUGH NOT LKLY...CANNOT RULE OUT THE PSBLTY OF PCPN BRFLY MXG IN OR CHG TO SN IN HIER ELEVS ALG ALLEGHENY FNT BEFORE ENDING. TEMPS 10-15 DEG BLO NORM FOR MID OF NXT WK. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CIGS GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR MORE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SUNDAY INTO MON...KEEPING THE SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR BUT INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT THE SFC EACH AFTN. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...THEN DROPPING OFF EACH NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE AREA BY LATE TUE...BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY W/ A BULK OF THE PRECIP AFFECTING THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS COULD ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM EARLY TUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS - ENDING EARLY WED.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS HV DIMINISHED BEHIND THE FNT. SCA WAS DUE TO XPRIRE AT 10 PM IN THAT AREA ANYWAY SO JUST CANX A LTL ERLY. MARGINAL SCA RMNS IN EFFECT FOR THE LWR PTMC/WIDEST PART OF MD SXN OF CHES BAY. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING AND LOW-MED RANGE SCA WINDS BOTH SUN AND MON AFTNS...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOVERS OFF THE ATLC COAST BUT INCREASES THE SFC PRES GRADIENT AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE WATERS BY LATE TUE...W/ PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537- 543.
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&& $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...KLW/GMS/CEM

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