Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --541 FXUS61 KLWX 280716 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 316 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Very warm temperatures for late April are expected today through Tuesday. A cold front crosses the area Tuesday afternoon, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Additional afternoon showers and storms are possible late this week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Abundant low and mid level clouds are currently in place across most of the area, as a few passing light showers move through. Some areas that have cleared are starting to see fog develop due to calm winds and a saturated boundary layer. This fog and residual low clouds burn off after sunrise as the weak disturbance aloft pushes east of the area. A strong mid-level ridge centered over the Carolinas today will produce mostly dry and much warmer conditions for our area. A stray shower or two is possible in the Potomac Highlands, but anything that develops will be short lived. Afternoon highs reach the low to mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Mild temps tonight in the upper 50s to 60s areawide.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --The mid-level high over the Carolinas moves northeast to start the week, bringing us dry conditions and the hottest temps of the week. Afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s possible along parts of the I-95 corridor into Central VA. Very mild Monday night as lows only drop to the low to mid 60s. The ridge aloft moves east of the area Tuesday as an upper trough and associated cold front cross the area. Well above normal warmth likely once again, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front Tuesday afternoon through late evening. A few storms could be strong, through the chance for more active/severe storms looks to be low given dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s and weak deep-layer shear at 30kt or less. Still, storms that do develop are going to be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Shower/storm activity moves east of the area late in the evening, with some lingering showers through part of the overnight. Not much temp relief as overnight lows settle in the upper 50s to 60s once again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity could continue into Wednesday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through. Instability and shear remain limited, but a few storms could be strong. With the passage of the front, high temperatures could drop a few degrees into the upper 70s and low 80s, but the heat likely continues for the end of the week. Brief high pressure over the Northeast should suppress convection on Thursday, but a few showers could develop west of the Blue Ridge. An area of pressure is currently progged to move from the Midwest into Great Lakes Friday/Saturday. The associated cold front looks to be the main driver for the area`s next chance for widespread showers over the weekend as it approaches from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Low clouds early this morning across the northern half of the area are producing MVFR to IFR conditions. These low CIGs could reach IAD, DCA, and BWI for a few hours early this morning. Conditions improve after sunrise as clouds dissipate. VFR and dry conditions expected this afternoon through Monday night, with southwest to west winds at 5-10 knots. A cold front sweeps through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and lightning strikes, as well as brief periods of reduced visibility. Convection moves east of the area late Tuesday evening. Mostly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms could bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. Northwest winds on Wednesday become southeasterly Thursday as a front returns north.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Southwest to south winds continue to diminish early this morning. The Small Craft Advisory has expired, though a few lingering gusts to 15-18 knots are possible through mid morning in the central Chesapeake Bay and Tangier Sound. After that, favorable marine conditions are expected through Monday night as high pressure brings dry and much warmer conditions. A cold front is forecast to cross the local waters Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots or greater and lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed as these storms cross the waters. Showers/storms push east of the area late Tuesday night as winds turn northwest behind the front. Northwest winds on Wednesday become southeasterly Thursday as a front returns north. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring stronger gusts to the waters, especially on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...-- Changed Discussion --Tidal anomalies continue to be on the decrease at this time, so no further tidal flooding is expected over the next several high tide cycles for most areas. A few locations could perhaps be close to Minor during the Sunday morning high tide, but have been trending down. Tidal anomalies could increase slightly with persistent southwest flow early this week but no flooding is expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLIMATE...-- Changed Discussion --Near-record to record warmth is possible on Monday afternoon. Below is a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and the year the record was set. Apr 29th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 91F (2017+) 91F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 89F (2017) 89F Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1951) 89F Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (1974) 86F Charlottesville (CHO)* 92F (1974) 89F Hagerstown (HGR)* 90F (1974) 86F Annapolis (NAK)* 92F (1974) 83F + denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted year is the most recent * denotes sites where Record Event Reports (RERs) are not issued-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ534-543.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KRR NEAR TERM...KRR SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...KRR/CAS MARINE...KRR/CAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR CLIMATE...LWX