Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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044 FXUS61 KLWX 131848 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will hold over the area through mid week. A weak frontal boundary will move into the Mid Atlantic late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will be in control through tonight. Clear skies expected this evening with increasing mid-high level clouds late tonight and early Mon. A few showers could develop across southwest areas early Mon due to easterly upslope flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Clouds thicken through the day Monday as moisture returns on backside of retreating sfc high. Sct showers expected Mon into Tue morning mainly over western areas. Drying occurs on Tue afternoon and night as weak low pres over ern NC moves offshore.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Frontal boundary will remain south of the region on Wednesday, but warm advection will be starting already and clouds will be on the increase again as high pressure moves east across the Northeast. Warm front advances back across the region on Thursday with an increased risk of showers and t-storms. By Friday, uncertainty exists regarding speed of the wave of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes, with faster guidance having pushed it east of the region already, while slower guidance holds it over Quebec and Ontario still. This uncertainty in the speed of system progression continues Saturday, with slower guidance pushing the first system east, while faster guidance already bringing the next system in from the west. Sunday continues with this uncertainty, with potential for showers and storms remaining, though some guidance now tries to build high pressure back into the region. Bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the long term, but it looks like the unsettled pattern of recent weeks will be continuing. Temperatures looks to be fairly close to normal overall, with no signicant heat or cool swings.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low clouds expected to develop west of the Blue Ridge mtns tonight into early Mon, but no restrictions expected at any of the terminals. Main concern later this week will be possibility of reduced cigs and vis with showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday. Right now convection looks isolated for the most part, but could increase to scattered coverage at some point, most likely Thursday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds are expected to remain below SCA through the end of the week. Main concern later this week will be possibility of gusty winds with any thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Risk is not high, but not zero. Otherwise, winds likely to stay mostly below SCA criteria.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...RCM/LFR MARINE...RCM/LFR

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