Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 220800 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS 5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY. QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCT. A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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