-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KLWX 241317
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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COLD FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY EAST OF THE BAY AND WILL PROGRESS
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED AND WITH COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE 30 TO 35 MPH MARK.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. STRONG VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON ITS EASTERN SIDE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THAT/S WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND
THESE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/WRF-ARW/HRRR
CAPTURE THIS WELL.

ASIDE FROM SHOWERS...TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WINDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. WE/VE LIKELY ALREADY HIT THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND
LITTLE IF ANY REBOUND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE MARCH THAN MAY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE`VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE`LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON GUSTS OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 25-30 KT. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM DCA UP TO
BWI/MTN. IN SHOWERS...VFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER IN THE EVENING.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE FOR TODAY. GRADIENT WIND/NW FLOW WILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
GALES THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN IN SOLID SCA CRITERIA.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/ABW
MARINE...BPP/ABW