Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 290059 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 859 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK... BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE RADAR AT 00Z...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN MARYLAND. EXPECT DOWNWARD TREND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY LEFT BY 03Z. OTHER ELEMENTS THAT SHOULD EXHIBIT A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET WILL BE THE STRATOCU FIELD AND WIND GUSTS. HAVE TO SAY THAT THE WINDS WE/VE HAD TODAY ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT ARE A PRODUCT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAVE IMPACTED THE AREA. UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS AND WINDS RELAX. FCST MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MTNS TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR INTERSTATE 95. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BARELY REACHING 80 DEG. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETS UP WEAK RETURN FLOW FOR THURSDAY AS LARGE COLD-CORE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. MARINE WEDGE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AT THE SURFACE WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW IN MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WEAK VORTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORE WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH OR STALL FROM 00 TO 12Z SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH SUNSET...WITH G25KT. PASSING SHOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT BWI/MTN THROUGH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BY 02Z-03Z. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT CHO- MRB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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EXTENDED THE SCA A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR GUSTS TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. WOULD EXPECT THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE BAY MAY CONTINUE IN SCA WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ON THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DRAW IN WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 531-535-536-538-539-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540-541-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...AEB AVIATION...BPP/HAS/AEB MARINE...BPP/HAS/AEB

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