Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 010014 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 814 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. WARM MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT. ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO -SHRA BY 18Z SUNDAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH INSTABILITY THAT COULD KICK T-STORMS AS CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH AND AN INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUN NIGHT AS MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PA. ASSOCIATED CDFNT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z MON WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER. MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE ERN GRT LKS WED-THU. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINALS. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MILES AND BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY TAPERS OFF. CIGS MAY IMPROVE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW IFR/SUBIFR CIGS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO MARINE AIR IN PLACE. FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE POSSIBLE. IFR/SUBIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE...AND IT WILL TURN OUT DRY AND BREEZY THANKS TO A WESTERLY FLOW. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SUNDAY WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. MINOR FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANNAPOLIS AND STRAITS POINT. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL LATER MONDAY.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...BJL/MSE/LFR MARINE...BJL/MSE/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/LFR

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