Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 290757 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Bonnie has moved onto the South Carolina coast. This will track slowly northeastward for the remainder of the holiday weekend. An upper level trough will track north across northern New England Monday. High pressure will build into the area for midweek. A cold front will push through the region Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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TS Bonnie has moved onto the SC coast. Its moisture will be tracking north into the CWA this afternoon bringing rain to the region...especially east of the Blue Ridge. That area is outlooked in slight risk of excessive rainfall. Flash flood guidance east of the mountains is 2-2.5 inches in 3-6 hours. Current forecast is for about 1.5 inches east of the mountains through Monday night with the heaviest rainfall expected tonight through Monday morning. Given these facts do not feel the need to put up any sort of flood watch. DC/Baltimore urban areas are always points of special interest in potential heavy rain situations. Later shifts will continue to monitor. Given increasing cloud cover and rainfall temperatures will not be quite as warm as in previous days. Highs in the lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Cloudy and rainy tonight as mentioned in the previous section. Lows in the mid 60s. An upper level trough presently over MN will be tracking east tonight...moving across ME and into Atlantic Canada Monday. This will force the moisture from Bonnie more onto the Delmarva... leaving the highest POPs along the Bay Monday morning. Some clearing will be possible west of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon...but much of the area will experience a cloudy Memorial Day. Highs around 80. Bonnie will likely be weakening Monday night and Tuesday... although the eastern part of the area may still be partly to mostly cloudy Monday night. Mostly sunny across the region Tuesday. Highs in the mid 80s then lower to mid 60s Tueday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weather for the second half of the work week depends on the location of Bonnie (or her remnants). She is expected to crawl along the Carolina coast into or perhaps through Thursday. Upper-level ridging over the eastern Great Lakes should allow an onshore flow and promote scattered diurnal convective thunderstorms Wednesday. An upper level trough pushes east across the great lakes Thursday. The associated cold front enter the LWX CWA Thursday night. This front looks to stall and both allow continued onshore flow and bring an active weather period into next week. Temperatures at or just below normal through the extended.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Beautiful skies outside at the moment but clouds will overspread the Mid Atlantic this morning. Showers will move into CHO area this afternoon with ceilings dropping into MVFR range tonight. Moderate to heavy rainfall expected tonight east of the Blue Ridge with ceilings dropping to IFR levels late tonight and continuing Monday morning. Improvement expected Monday afternoon. Onshore flow Wednesday with diurnal scattered thunderstorms. Cold front approaches from the west Thursday with continued onshore flow and possible low ceilings. Cold front stalls over the area into next weekend.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds expected to remain below SCA values today through Memorial Day but rain will be moving into the region this afternoon... possibly heavy tonight and Monday. No problems on the waters Monday Night or Tuesday. Onshore flow likely below SCA levels Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front and as Bonnie lingers along the NC coast. Thunderstorms possible in this time.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BAJ

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