Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261608 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1108 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED HEADLINES...HAVE CANCELED ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MD WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERS. HOWEVER IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY MINIMAL AND THE REST CAN EXPIRE ON TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE VA/NC SHORE THIS MORNING. MDT/HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE NOW RAPIDLY EXITING SOUTHERN MD WITH SOME LIGHTER SNOW LAGGING BEHIND. THIS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING SOME LIGHT SHALLOW SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE LOW WILL SCRAPE ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL. A FEW BREAKS/THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS...HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... NRN STREAM TROF AXIS WL APPROACH AREA TNGT...BUT WL BE SHEARING OUT. HWVR...THE COMBO OF PVA/UPR JET/MSTR PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE SHSN OR FLURRIES CUD FALL AT JUST ABT ANY TIME. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION POTL IN FCST. USING CHC POPS TO DO SO FOR TNGT...AND SCHC FOR TMRW. THE WRN UPSLP AREAS WL BENEFIT THE MOST BY THIS PTTN...BUT THAT SETUP WL BE MITIGATED BY A NEARLY FRZN OVER LK ERIE. THEREFORE...MSTR WL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. ONLY HV LIFT FM UPSLP FOR PCPN POTL...WHICH WL CUT BACK TTLS. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENT FOR PCPN WL BECOME LESS FVRBL BY FRI AS SFC HIPRES BEGINS TO BUILD FM THE GRTLKS. STILL NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP FCSTS. MIN-T TEENS AND LWR 20S...MAXT MID 20S-MID 30S. IMPACT OF CAA MOST NOTABLE IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S BY MONDAY MORNING SO A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. LITTLE RELIEF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE NEXT LARGE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BECOME WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE MID-WESTERN STATES AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE COLDER SURFACE. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WINTRY MIX TO CHANGE TO RAIN.&& && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN AT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A LOT OF LLVL MSTR WL BE LEFT BHD...ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING TROF AXIS. THEREFORE...MADE LATER STAGES OF THE FCST MORE PESSIMISTIC...BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT VFR CONDS WL RETURN IN FULL TIL SOMETIME ON FRI. REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... A FEW NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WNDS WL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TNGT...BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN IN NW FLOW AS TROF AXIS ARRIVES TMRW. WL KEEP WINDS BLO SCA LVLS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016>018. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ013-014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS

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