Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 251848 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure near the South Carolina North Carolina border will move slowly northeastward along the North Carolina coast through this evening, and finally off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region late Thursday and remain nearby through the weekend. A stronger cold front will pass through the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper level low and sfc low are stacked over eastern NC this afternoon. A band of rain has been pivoting across the Mid- Atlantic region today as the 850mb warm front pushes NW. Northeast flow across the region has led to cool conditions today with temperatures in the 50s. Temps and dewpts have been slowly climbing near southern MD and the Tidewater region this afternoon with places reaching the L60s. The slow-moving storm system will track northward along the east coast tonight. Winds slowly back to the north overnight with temps in the 50s overnight. A mix of rain, drizzle and fog is expected overnight keeping conditions damp with low clouds and low visibilities.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Coastal low pressure will be off the Ocean City MD coast Wednesday morning. Rain will still be around the region in the morning as wrap- around moisture moves around the storm system. Winds will become NW Wednesday however dry air will take time to move into the region. Clouds will diminish from west to east throughout the day. Temps will climb to near 70 Wednesday. Ridging is expected across the region Wed night and dry conditions are expected. Low-level moisture is expected Wed night and fog is likely into Thursday morning. Southerly flow increases Thursday and temps rebound into the 80s by afternoon. A cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front should slide across our region Friday before stalling across central or eastern portions of Virginia later in the day then inching northward as a weak warm front Friday night. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the period with high temperatures remaining on the warm side. On Saturday, high pressure will be to our southeast with a front now along the Mason-Dixon line. Temperatures will remain warm with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly across the northern half of our region. By Sunday into Sunday night, the high to the southeast will break down with the front meandering across the northern half of our region. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will become more prominant, mainly Sunday night into Monday due to the ridge breaking down. An increasing southerly wind will usher in warmer and more humid air to help fuel showers and thunderstorms later Monday into Monday evening. A strong cold front should works its way eastward across the region Monday night. Gusty westerly winds and drier and cooler air will filter into the region Tuesday behind the cold front as high pressure builds in from the west.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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IFR conditions will continue through tonight as low-level moisture from low pressure continues to influence the terminals. -RA and DZ are expected with variable fog which may reduce conditions to LIFR tonight. Uncertainty exists in the timing of reduced vsbys due to FG overnight and therefore kept most terminals at 3SM overnight. IFR conditions continue into Wed morning. Dry air will take time to bring terminals to VFR Wed so thinking MVFR will likely stick around for most of the morning. Winds begin as NE this afternoon and will become NW by Wednesday. Winds become S Wednesday night into Thursday. BR/FG expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning and flight restrictions are possible. Vfr conditions Friday through Saturday. Mvfr conditions in any isolated shower or thunderstorm. Mvfr to ifr conditions Saturday night in shower or thunderstorm activity, mainly near MRB, IAD, BWI and MTN terminals. Winds southwest 5 knots Friday and Friday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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Low pressure over eastern North Carolina this afternoon will weaken as it moves up the Mid-Atlantic Coast through tonight. NE winds have been diminishing from south to north across the waters this afternoon. A SCA is in effect for all waters through tonight. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken and SCA may need to be canceled earlier than EXP. A southerly flow will develop Wednesday and the southerly flow will strengthen ahead of a cold front Thursday into Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday into Thursday night. No marine hazards expected Friday through Saturday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Friday and Friday night. Winds southwest around 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Easterly flow around low pressure to the south will continue to promote persistent onshore flow over the waters through today...which will keep tidal anamolies elevated. Minor tidal flooding is expected at Straits Point/St. Mary`s county this afternoon and a coastal flood advisory is in effect. Elevated water levels will also cause the shoreline of King George and Charles county to reach minor flood stage at Dahlgren. The flow should gradually turn northerly tonight into Wednesday as the low moves away from the area. Water levels should begin to decrease during this time...though minor coastal flooding will remain possible through tonights tide cycle at the most sensitive sites.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535- 536.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HSK/KLW MARINE...HSK/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSK

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