Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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145 FXUS61 KLWX 160129 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 829 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area through tonight. A stationary front over the southern mid-Atlantic states will move north as a warm front Tuesday. A weak cold front will push through the area Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc high pressure persists across the Mid-Atlantic region tonight. Higher heights will build into the region from the south tonight and weak isentropic lift will produce light rain across the VA Highlands including the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mtns. Moisture will taper off as a ridge of high pressure and dry air blocks rain from moving north or east keeping much of the outlook area dry overnight. Rain will dive southeast and move across the central foothills and tidewater region early Monday. Sub-freezing temps are expected across the northern third of the outlook area overnight. Temperatures along the Blue Ridge mtns may also drop below freezing. Rain is expected to stay south of the sub-freezing temps with the exception of the Blue Ridge Mtns tonight. There may be an area where rain and sub-freezing temperatures overlap across the Potomac Highlands however confidence is very low. If rain does move this far north...some fzra and/or sleet are possible. Confidence is very low as rain should stay south of this region. FZRA is possible along the Blue Ridge mtns tonight however confidence is low since there may only be a section of elevation that goes below freezing. Prev Discussion... Forcing wanes during the day Monday with only spotty precip with any fzra ending as temps rise abv freezing. Otherwise, plenty of low clouds under weakening sfc wedge. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Late Mon night, deeper moisture begins to spread the area from the west as a storm system tracks from Kansas City to Chicago. Rain appears likely everywhere late Mon night through Tue as a warm front lifts through the area. Very mild Tue evening ahead of cdfnt with temps in the 50s. Cdfnt clears the area around 12Z Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will move across the region as the low pressure system pushes across northern New England Wednesday into Wednesday night. The chance for rain may linger Wednesday, but then should taper off with partial clearing, cooler temperatures, and perhaps some upslope snow showers in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. High pressure should build across the region Thursday and Thursday night before moving offshore the eastern U.S. Coast by Friday. Drier conditions with seasonable to mild temperatures are anticipated each period. A warm front should work its way northward up the Appalachian Front later Friday into Friday night, bringing a chance for a few rain showers. During the day Saturday, a second warm front could work its way northward toward the region. Even milder air and the chance for rain showers exist with this warm front as well. How far north this warm front gets will depend on the strength of an area of high pressure over New England. This high could try to wedge itself southward into our region. By Sunday, the high should weaken just enough to allow for a low pressure system over the Southeast U.S. to slide northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic. Due to the lack of cold air, any precipitation should be in the form of rain. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thickening mid-high level clouds tonight with IFR conditions in -RA at KCHO. MVFR cigs at all other TAF sites Mon with no precip. Cigs and vsbys are expected to drop Mon night and IFR is anticiptated. Better chances of rain area wide late Mon night through Tue with passage of warm front. Mvfr conditions Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Winds west 5 to 10 knots Wednesday, becoming northwest 5 knots Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Winds will diminish through Monday and begin to strengthen on Tue. SCA conditions possible Tue afternoon through Wednesday. No marine hazards Wed night through Fri. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HSK/LFR/KLW MARINE...HSK/LFR/KLW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.