Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 211434 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1034 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH SFC LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT WILL KEEP PCPN LIGHT AND OCNL IN NATURE...WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MOD RAIN OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTH. 14Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR SLOWLY INCHING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH SHOULD MOVE IN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID AFTN...AIDING IN ENDING THE PCPN. THINKING EAST OF BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE OFF/ON PCPN THRU THE AFTN...THEN TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST...AND WINDS COME AROUND THE NW AND USHERS IN THE DRIER AIR. OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND PCPN HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS WILL PUSH INTO THE 60S. BY TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME VERY PRONOUNCED AND HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ON MEMORIAL DAY FOLLOWED BY 90S FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MIDDLE AND UPPER 90 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE METRO AREAS. ALL OF THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CIGS DROPPING TO IFR...SO WILL HOLD OFF FROM INCLUDING FOR NOW. BEST CHC IF THEY DO DROP WOULD BE 15-20Z. CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING...THOUGH TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HOURS. WINDS ARE LIGHT/VRB TODAY...BCMG NW TONIGHT AND INCRSG. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY TO ACCOUNT FOR OCNL GUSTS ALREADY REACHING 20 KTS AND THIS CONTINUING THRU THE AFTN. THIS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE INCRSNG AGAIN FRI MORNING WHEN THE NEXT SCA GOES INTO EFFECT. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>534-540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR/KRW NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...KRW LONG TERM...KRW AVIATION...LFR/KRW/SEARS MARINE...LFR/KRW/SEARS

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