Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 210800 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...1007MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING OVER NRN OHIO. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OVER THE WRN PA/CNTRL WV. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISO THUNDER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW CENTER. THIS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY FLOW PREVAILS...BUT IS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (CATEGORICAL WEST). MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY (THE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE)...BUT CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE THE PRECISE DEGREE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
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POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE). WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S. SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD. GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S. AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.
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&& .MARINE...
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FLOW BECOMES WLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA. SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS. THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES BUT FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLD LVLS.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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