Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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609 FXUS61 KLWX 230213 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 913 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the area overnight and hold through Friday. Another cold front will approach overnight Friday into Saturday before passing through Saturday night. High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Winds will continue to diminish tonight as high pressure builds from the west. Stratocumulus over the mtns are expected to gradually dissipate overnight. Otherwise, clear and cold tonight with lows in the 20s in most places except low 30s in southern MD and city centers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build overhead for Thanksgiving Day and Thanksgiving night, resulting in below normal temperatures and dry conditions. High pressure will shift eastward off the DELMARVA peninsula Friday, allowing winds to turn more southerly, which will help temperatures return to more seasonable levels with highs in the low-mid 50s and low temperatures Friday night in the mid-upper 30s for most. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will approach from the west on Saturday, with an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Slight rain chances will be possible Saturday across the western and northern portions of the CWA as the primary energy will remain to the north. At the same time a coastal low pressure system will be moving northeast away from the Carolina coast. At this time, little to no impact is forecast for our area, however should this low move a further northwestward, southeastern portions of the region could see some rain showers. Behind the frontal passing, snow showers will be possible along the typical higher terrain locations, with little to no accumulation expected. Surface high pressure builds on Sunday as an upper trough axis moves east of our CWA. Chilly, breezy, and mostly dry conditions will prevail as any remaining upslope snow showers will wane. Sunday will highlight colder than average temperatures, with most locations not getting out of the 40s, and overnight lows Sunday night similar to tonight. Monday will see high pressure move eastward from the Ohio Valley, migrating off the coast late Monday. With the upper level trough just exiting the region, temperatures will be slightly warmer Monday, yet still below average for late November. Dry conditions expected. Southwest flow returns on Tuesday thanks to the migration of the high to our east, returning temperatures to mid-upper 50s, and breaching the 60 degree mark on Wednesday. Models are in a bit of a disagreement with an approaching cold front Wednesday, so will continue to monitor this situation over the next couple of days to iron out the details and timing. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail across all the terminals for Thanksgiving Day and Friday as high pressure builds overhead. Mainly VFR conditions expected Saturday, with precipitation possible later that day as a cold front approaches the area. Potential exists for periods of MVFR conditions Saturday afternoon and evening. Drier/VFR conditions expected Sunday into Monday over the terminals.
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&& .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters tonight as gusty northwesterly winds will start to subside toward Thursday morning. No headlines expected thereafter through Friday night as high pressure builds in overhead. Winds are expected to stay below threshold on Saturday into Saturday night as cold front moves through the area. Winds will increase on Sunday into Sunday night, therefore small craft advisories will be possible. Winds will decrease below SCA threshold on Monday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ531>534- 537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ530- 535-536-538-542.
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&& $$ Update...LFR Products...BKF/IMR

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