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700
FXUS61 KLWX 011410
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Brief high pressure settles over the region today through Thursday
leading to a warm and dry conditions. A backdoor cold front will
cross the area late THursday into Friday before sinking south this
weekend. An additional cold front and area of low pressure will pass
through the area Sunday into early next week. This will result in
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms along with cooler
conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Visibilities continue to improve rapidly as dry air works back into
the region on light northwest flow. The cold front from yesterday
continues to push south and east of the region this morning while
brief shortwave ridging/surface high pressure takes over the lower
Ohio River Valley. Outside of a few mid and high level clouds
mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge this morning clear skies
prevail. High temperatures today will push into the low to mid 80s
with mountain locations remaining in the 60s and 70s. Humidity
values will come down as well with dewpoints hovering in the upper
40s and lower 50s this afternoon. WInds will remain light out of the
northwest at 5-10 mph.

High pressure slides over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge
Wednesday evening into Thursday leading to a continuation of quiet
weather conditions. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper
50s with low 60s over the Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging builds over the area Thursday through Saturday
supporting generally fair weather conditions. Temps jump back
at or above 90F Thu as wind turn southerly, but begin to cool
down Fri as backdoor front moves through the area. Temps drop
further over the weekend as strong wedge settles over the area.
Strengthening onshore flow late Fri night will result in a low
overcast with rain/drizzle Fri night into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface low pressure and the associated cold fronts will move over
the forecast area this weekend, bringing increased chances for rain
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Plenty of moisture
(PWATS 1.25-1.5") will make isolated instances of flooding possible
with the WPC having the western portion of the forecast area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday morning. High
temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s for most with overnight
lows in the 50s. On Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 60s to
mid 70s areawide with overnight low temperatures expected to be in
the 50s to low 60s.

Come Monday, the aforementioned area of low pressure will over the
Atlantic off the east coast while weak front dips down through the
forecast area. This front will lift north as a warm front throughout
the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
possible both days. The slight warming trend continues with high
temperatures in the 70s both days. Those near the metro areas may
get into the low 80s on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s both nights.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid-high level clouds departing later this morning with SKC
sky conditions later this afternoon. Light NW winds today, then
becoming southerly Thu.


Multiple cold fronts will bring showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to the terminals both Saturday and Sunday. Sub-VFR
conditions are expected at times on both days. In additions to
reduced CIGs and VSBYs, southeasterly winds will gust up to 20 knots
on Saturday and 10-15 knots on Sunday.
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&&

.MARINE...
No hazards expected through Thu night. SCA conditions likely Fri
into the weekend.

Gusty southeasterly winds will gust between 15-25 knots on Saturday
as multiple cold fronts bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely both Saturday and
Sunday. While winds diminish slightly on Sunday, gusts 15-20 knots
are possible in the afternoon.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR