Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 160052 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 852 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the region through Sunday. Tropical Storm Jose is forecast to move north as a hurricane along...but well offshore of...the Atlantic coast early next week. See the National Hurricane Center bulletins for the latest information on Jose. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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There was enough instability this afternoon under the weakening upper trough to trigger a few isolated showers. Any remaining ones will dissipate shortly, with dry conditions expected overnight. Cloud cover this evening has seen a downward trend as instability lessens, however with subsidence inversion aloft associated with ridge of surface and low level high pressure, some moisture will likely be trapped leading to areas of lingering stratocumulus. Where skies can remain clear, with light winds and falling temperatures, areas of patchy fog likely to develop. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s, locally near 70F in the urban centers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Large scale upper level ridge will be building overhead Saturday and Sunday, but a weakness from Irma`s remnants will remain over our region. This combined with warming temps but lingering moisture could once again get a stray shower going, potentially anywhere, but most likely over the terrain. Highs Saturday will be a little warmer than today, with mid 80s more common, but may drop a little Sunday with just a little cooling aloft. Saturday night will be almost a carbon copy of tonight... dissipating clouds followed by patchy fog in the favored spots. Lows look to be a little milder than tonight. However, by Sunday night, Jose may start to influence the weather, with a bit more cloud cover and perhaps a few showers making their way into the middle bay. Lows will remain mild, in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weather conditions in the long term period will highly depend on how close to the shore Jose tracks. Most likely it will stay relatively dry with perhaps a few showers with the northeasterly flow while Jose moves north to our east. The future track of Jose is highly uncertain with large variations in the model guidance, though consensus and the NHC forecast keep what is currently Tropical Storm Jose offshore. At this time, impacts from Jose in our CWA appear to be very little if any assuming the storm remains in its projected northward movement remaining offshore of the U.S. East coast. Thursday into Friday weather conditions look dry with upper ridge building in. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Predominantly VFR expected through Sunday night, especially between the hours of 12z-04z. Each night and early morning will run the risk of low clouds and patchy fog. For tonight, greatest likelihood of IFR conditions are at CHO and MRB, with chances also at IAD/BWI. DCA/MTN not expected to experience restrictions. VFR conditions expected Monday-Wednesday, though this is dependent on Jose staying offshore. A track closer to the coast or inland would significantly alter this forecast.
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&& .MARINE... No marine hazards expected through Sunday night with high pressure and light winds. Wind gusts are expected to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria Monday into Wednesday based on the latest forecast track for Jose. Any track shift could alter this forecast, resulting in either higher or lower wind speeds than currently forecast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels remain a little elevated. They should remain below minor thresholds for the next couple cycles. By Sunday and especially Monday, the approach of Jose may further elevate them, resulting in minor flooding at sensitive sites. Depending on how close the storm gets, moderate is not impossible, but uncertainty on this is very high at the moment. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...MM/RCM SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...IMR/RCM AVIATION...MM/IMR/RCM MARINE...MM/IMR/RCM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM

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