Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 221440 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1040 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOMENTARILY STATIONARY EAST OF THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER SHORE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD. RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT EASTERN/SOUTHERN MD...WASHINGTON DC AND THE I-05 CORRIDOR DOWN TO FREDERICKSBURG AND POINTS SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS 5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY. QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCT. A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON AT DC AREA TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE TODAY. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR AT KDCA/KIAD WHEN LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT. VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.
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&& .MARINE...
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PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES. GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532- 535-536-538>540-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533- 534-537-541-543. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS

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