Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280757 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 357 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL RIDGE INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC INTO TODAY...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES MONDAY....MOVING OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...1024MB SFC HIGH IS OVER WRN NY WITH THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MSLP OF 1022 AND 1023MB OVER THE AREA...THE SFC HAS DECOUPLED IN THE WEAK GRADIENT. SOME TYPICAL VALLEY AND PIEDMONT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST/OFFSHORE TODAY AND AREA FLOW BECOMES SLY YET THIS MORNING. H85 TEMPS AROUND 14C WITH LIGHT MIXING AND SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S (SIMILAR TO SATURDAY).
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT IN DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MIDWEST TROUGH. MIN TEMP GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY...CHOSE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AS SKY SHOULD BE OVERCAST BY THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...MID 50S PIEDMONT AND WEST...AROUND 60F COASTAL LOW LANDS AND LOW TO MID 60S IN URBAN/NEARSHORE AREAS. MONDAY...UPR TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SFC HIGH OVER NC WILL LIMIT LLVL MOISTURE AND LOW POPS COULD ONLY BE JUSTIFIED FOR CNTRL VA. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT FROM A HIGH-BASED CLOUD.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LAST NGT I WROTE A LENGTHY DSCN BASED ON DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS INVOLVING A GULF CST LOW...A CAD WEDGE...AND A PTNL UPR LVL VORT. NMRCL GDNC HAD LOTS OF POPS IN THE XTND...BUT MDLS HV A TENDENCY TO LEAN TOO HIGH OVERALL. TNGT THE MDLS APPEAR TO HV COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE LOWER POP SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVR THE GULF STATES IS STILL THERE MON NGT/TUE...ALTHO DISORGANIZED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHCS OF PCPN WL RMN TO OUR S...W/ THE LOW TRACKING OFF THE CAROLINA CST TUE NGT. WEAK HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WED-FRI. HV BUMPED BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPS UP SVRL DEGS - THESE WERE BLO CLIMO NORMS (M70S HIGHS/ A50 LOWS) BUT HV PUSHED TO THE U70S DURG THE AFTNS/MU50S OVRNGT. THE NEXT BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE LOOKS TO BE SAT AS A CD FNT CROSSES THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN MID-ATLANTIC WITH CONTINUING VFR THROUGH MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED FOG THIS MORNING. LIGHT SLY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT CHO MONDAY. VFR CONDS XPCTD MON-THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM NY STATE TODAY WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. LIGHT FLOW AGAIN MONDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS MAY REACH SCA VALUES TUE AND WED AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN THE CST.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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