Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 311906 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Several weak frontal boundaries will be in the area this evening through Thursday. A stronger cold front will pass through from the west later Friday into Friday night. High pressure may briefly build into the area Saturday before another cold front approaches Sunday and passes through Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure behind the front which crossed the area yesterday has provided generally stable conditions today. Drier air has mixed down and allowed dew points to drop as well. There is still potential for showers in parts of far southern Maryland and central Virginia but odds are not great...with weak instability and little upper-level forcing. Temperatures in the 80s most of the area at present will drop into the 60s most areas tonight...with some 50s in the cool spots. With light winds and mostly clear skies later on...potential for more fog exists...though with lower dew points to start we might not get as widespread as last night. Any fog will break early Wednesday. However...back door cold front will approach the area from the north and could spawn a stray shower or t-storm. Temps may also be a little cooler with more clouds but generally still a decent day. Highs again mostly in the 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Back door cold front appears to regain some strength and push southwest into the area Wednesday night into Thursday...with further modest decrease in temperatures. This may try to keep north and east portions of CWA dry...while further SW spotty showers/storms will again be possible though with low coverage once again. Stronger cold front will approach from the west on Thursday night and cross the area Friday. This system will bring better concentration and coverage of rain and storms. However...forcing aloft is not great even if CAPE looks decent...so probably looking at marginal severe if any. Highs again in the vicinity of 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure briefly builds in Friday night-Saturday, keeping most of the area dry through the day. Attention then turns to upper trough digging into the NE Sunday. Guidance still differs with respect to amplitude/positioning/timing, which will have a big influence on impacts for our area. Depending on evolution, shear/thermo profiles could be favorable for severe thunderstorms.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR expected area-wide for the remainder of the day. Could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm near CHO but will leave out for now due to low confidence/coverage. Areas of fog possible again later tonight into Wednesday morning, along with some isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, especially MRB/CHO. Sub- IFR conditions possible yet again Wednesday night into Thursday with marine layer...then more isolated/scattered showers/t-storms Thursday afternoon mainly MRB/CHO. Winds generally less than 10 knots through Thursday, ranging from NE-SE. Better coverage of showers/t-storms late Thursday night and Friday with stronger front. Winds become more SW for a time. Another stronger cold front approaches Sunday with another chance of thunderstorms across the area.
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&& .MARINE...
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Sub-SCA winds expected through at least Wednesday with surface flow generally northeast to southeast less than 15 knots. Near- SCA conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday behind a back door cold front. Another cold front passing through the waters Friday into Friday night will bring better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday with another stronger cold front. Gradient winds also increase near SCA conditions Sunday near and behind frontal passage.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...MSE/RCM MARINE...MSE/RCM

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