Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 030133 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 933 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID- ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BALTIMORE METRO AND WASHINGTON DC METRO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROS THIS EVENING. RECEIVED MANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL INCLUDING TENNIS BALL AND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL. SEE LSR SUMMARY. A SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER NOVA THIS EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NRN MD. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME AS SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND STORMS HAVE MERGED WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OUTSIDE ACTIVITY. FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MONT COUNTY MD. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NW-N OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EWD WITH MULTIPLE SFC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG SLOW MOVING CDFNT. RAIN/SHOWERS AND MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGHT THE NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM HALF INCH ACROSS THE PA BORDER TO OVER AN INCH SOUTH OF I-66 AND U.S. ROUTE 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH A LULL IN PRECIP. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER MICHIGAN AND DROPS SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS MOVE IN AGAIN WED NIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND STRONG ASCENT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS BROAD COLD CORE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SAGS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WON`T BE AS CHILLY SUNDAY. THE FRONT COULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND BECOME NRLY OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR BY TUE MORNING. SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OVER WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NRLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SMW WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE EVENING. SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HAS/LFR/KLW MARINE...HAS/LFR/KLW

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