Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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135 FXUS61 KLWX 010211 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 911 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will track into eastern Canada tonight. An associated cold front will push through the Mid Atlantic late tonight. High pressure will return to the region Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will track to the west of the region Sunday night. High pressure returns Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Line of showers stretches from York, PA to Fredericksburg, VA and is moving east around 30 knots and will reach the Chesapeake Bay around 03Z. 01/00Z IAD sounding showed an inversion around 500 mb with equilibrium level temps warmer than -10C. So, thunderstorms appear very unlikely. However, the line could still produce a few strong wind gusts. EZF in Fredericksburg just reported a 35-kt gust at 855PM. Cold front moves east across the area near midnight...with showers ending shortly thereafter.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Drying out Thursday (though some upslope snow showers are possible along the Allegheny Front)...with high temperatures in the 50s and gusty westerly winds under mostly sunny skies. High pressure builds into the area from the SW Friday with dry weather (outside of light upslope snow) and temperatures near normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will keep dry conditions Saturday into part of Sunday as it drifts east from the Ohio Valley. High temperatures will be in the 40s for most of our CWA...30s at higher elevations. A shortwave trough in the upper levels could bring a chance of showers for late Sunday into early Monday... with additional precipitation into Monday afternoon on the Allegheny Front. Confidence is low after this, as guidance disagree on timing and location for a surface low to lift from the Gulf States...increasing the chance of precipitation to our region for Tuesday into Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s...and low temperatures in the 30s mainly....with 20s at higher elevations which could see some type of frozen precipitation, and some 40s near the Bay. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Showers currently moving through the main terminals should clear them by 03Z. Gusty winds up to 35kt possible. Cold front crosses the area after midnight tonight with a shift to west winds. Gusts in 25 kt range Friday and Saturday with VFR conds. Dry conditions expected for Saturday into part of Sunday with high pressure dominating weather conditions...therefore VFR conditions expected. Late on Sunday into Monday, an upper level disturbance could bring showers to the terminals, allowing for conditions to become sub-VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Gale warning in effect until 2AM EST. Gale force gusts have been reported at Shannon airport in Fredericksburg, VA. A cold front crosses the area tonight with a shift to west winds after midnight. West winds mix down through Thursday with gusts around 25-30 knots across the waters. SCA through Thursday for now...and is likely again both Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions expected for Saturday into part of Sunday with high pressure dominating weather conditions.Late on Sunday into Monday, an upper level disturbance could bring showers over the waters. Gusty winds possible Saturday...so a small craft advisory could be possible for this day.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/MSE MARINE...IMR/MSE

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