Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280800 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic through Monday before moving offshore. A cold front will move through the area early Thursday. High pressure returns for late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... Surface high pressure is currently over northeastern Maine and heading further east into Atlantic Canada...while strong ridge of high pressure aloft continues to dominate overhead. Onshore flow has started to bring in some of the anticipated low clouds but unsure just how far west they can penetrate before breaking up this morning. The onshore flow will keep temps a bit cooler than yesterday across much of the region with decreasing influence as one heads west...especially west of the Blue Ridge. In the far west enough instability looks present to provide a stray thunderstorm later today though think this will be confined to the Allegheny Front. Otherwise...still fairly hot by this afternoon by late August standards with some sun across most of the area. Any storms dissipate early tonight and the flow will shift more southerly. It will remain light however so think patchy fog is possible in the interior again. Lows remain on the mild side. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Approaching weak front with shortwave will result in slightly warmer and more humid conditions on Monday...but not heat advisory levels. Forcing and greater instability also likely to result in a better chance of t-storms...though think they stay mainly NW of the metro. Some may drift into the metro or fire on boundaries near the metro during the evening. This boundary sags south and weakens on Tuesday and the forcing mostly passes us. Thus overall a lesser chance of t- storms Tuesday with slightly cooler temps...but with the boundary hanging up in central VA these areas may actually have a better shot at storms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect high temperatures to climb to around 90 again Wednesday to end both the month and meteorological summer. See the climo stats below for the summer so far. A cold front dropping into the area may bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms closer to the metro areas Wednesday evening. A showLight winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of storms increases late Monday into Monday evening. Risk declines Tuesady. Winds stay sub-SCA Monday and or thunderstorm will remain possible Thursday across southern portions of the area as some models/ensembles are slower with the southward progress of the cold front. Temperatures will take a drop to begin September with highs in the low to mid 80s. Thursday night will provide some of the most comfortable temperatures area has experienced recently. Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge...and mid to upper 50s west. Friday should see highs in the lower 80s then rising for the holiday weekend. Fly in the ointment is that the Euro is projecting low pressure moving over the Outer Banks next Saturday night. This model keeps this east of the CWA but holiday travelers should keep an eye on the development in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main concern is low clouds trying to push west into the terminals early this morning. Think they stay away from DCA but they may reach BWI so have tempo group. They should not last long and we should be VFR bulk of day. Inland the early fog will dissipate quickly as well. Chance of t-storms nil at terminals today. Patchy fog mainly inland again tonight then a better risk of mainly inland t-storms on Monday. Something may drift towards metro terminals during the eve. Risk of t-storms looks a little lower Tuesday in the metro and MRB but may be higher CHO where front hangs up. VFR Wednesday. A thunderstorm is possible Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches. && .MARINE... Light winds and no risk of storms through early Monday. Risk of storms increases late Monday into Monday evening. Risk declines Tuesady. Winds stay sub-SCA Monday and Tuesday. Winds below SCA values Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening. && .CLIMATE... Ranking of summer 2016 in terms of average temperature (JUN 1 - AUG 27) Site Rank Average Temperature DC 3 80.5 Balt 18 77.3 IAD 3 77.3 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ PRODUCTS...RCM/WOODY! is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.