Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 261945 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 345 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... MRNG BNDRY SURVIVED LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. ITS REMNANTS CAN BE FOUND ACRS CENTRAL VA ATTM. HWVR...IT LEFT BHD RESIDUAL CLDCVR FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. SINCE THEN CLRG DVLPD IN CENTRAL/ERN PA. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES RECOVERED IN THAT AREA. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR...TSRA BLOSSOMED IN AREA OF BEST HEATING. WHILE THESE STORMS SPECIFICALLY MAY NOT AFFECT CWFA...THE BELT OF FVRBL EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST ACRS PA. THEREFORE...ADDTL STORMS SHUD DVLP...AND LTST SCANS INDICATED THAT INDEED IS WHATS HAPPENING. AS DISCUSSED ERLR...SNDGS FCST CONTAIN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. STRONG TO PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN PSBL. WITH THAT IN MIND...A SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLC. NRN MD INCL BALT CITY ARE INCL IN THE WATCH AREA... WHICH RUNS THROUGH 01Z. THIS AREA CONTAINS THE BEST CONFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND INSTBY. WE WL BE MONITORING TRENDS...AND WUD EXPAND WATCH IF REQD. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SWD ACRS CWFA THIS EVNG. INSTBY WL BE WANING PRIOR TO FROPA...CLOSER TO SUNSET. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WUD BE OUTRUNNING BEST SHEAR. THEREFORE... POPS WL SLOWLY BE DECLINING THRU THE NGT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WE WL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BNDRY WED AS THE FNT CONTS TO SLOWLY SAG SWD. THERE WL BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING PTTN IN PLACE THO. THEREFORE...POPS /MAINLY CHC SHRA/ WL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY. THE MTNS WL BE BEST SITUATED TO RECEIVE RAFL ON WED. THE ISENT LIFT WL IMPRV THU AS LOPRES EMERGES FM THE PLAINS. AS SUCH...POPS RISE BACK TO LKLY. AM PRESERVING THE SHRA EMPHASIS. ANY INSTBY SHUD BE MEAGER-- AND ELEVATED. PWATS RISE ABV AN INCH...SO QPF WL BE BIGGEST OUTCOME /AND ITS NEEDED!/. WL HV A CPL OF COOLER DAYS...SPCLY THU DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED PCPN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SLOW MOVING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE SAT WITH SFC TROUGH NEARBY... BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ON SUN BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. LOW PRESS MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT INTO MON INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO CLEAR UP ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MRNG CLDS THINNING OUT. AFTN CU HV QUITE DVLPD YET INVOF TERMINALS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BY MID AFTN. AFTN TSRA THUS FAR HV FORMED IN ERN PA...BUT BELT OF FVRBL SHEAR EXTENDS ALL THE WAY ACRS PA. THEREFORE...THERES A GOOD CHC AT AFTN/ELY EVE SHRA/TSRA...SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. BEST ESTIMATE ATTM THAT PEAK GUST POTL RANGES SOMEWHERE ARND 30-35 KT. AN ISOL GUST MAY GET TO 50 KT...SPCLY MTN. STORMS SHUD EXIT BY 00Z...OR PERHAPS AN HR OR TWO LATER. HWVR THERE WL BE ENUF RESIDUAL MSTR THAT WHEN COMBINED W/ NLY TO NELY FLOW...MVFR STRATUS SHUD DVLP. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC AT IFR... BUT AM NOT GOING THAT FAR ATTM. FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD CONT WED AS SFC FLOW WL BE NELY...BCMG ELY. AT FIRST...CLDS SHUD BE THE BIGGEST PLAYER. MARITIME ONNSHORE FLOW CONTS INTO THU. PCPN CHCS WL INCREASE AS THIS SAME PTTN BECOMES MORE PROLONGED. THEREFORE...FLGT RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE LKLY...W/ A BETTER CHC AT SOME IFR DVLPG. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT. THEN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER OUR REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
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VERT MIXING BCMG DEEPER. SNDGS HV AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE...WHICH PROMOTES DEEP MIXING. NEAR GLW VALUES AT TOP OF MIXED LYR...AND THATS BEING REALIZED IN MTRS ATTM. THEREFORE...HV UPGRADED TO GLW FOR ALL WATERS THRU 02Z. WL HV SCA THEREAFTER...FOR REST OF NGT. TSRA NOT AFFECTING WATERS ATTM...BUT NMRS TSRA DVLPG TO THE N OF THE BAY AS WELL AS IN OHVLY. TSRA LKLY WL AFFECT WATERS LT AFTN INTO ELY EVNG. FLOW BACKS NLY TNGT AND BECOMES ELY BY WED. ELY FLOW CONTS THRU THU. WINDS SHUD BE BLO SCA CONTS THRU THIS TIME. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRI INTO SUN AS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS PSBL FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/HTS MARINE...IMR/HTS

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