Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 141118 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 718 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary remains offshore of the Carolina Coast early this morning. Weak high pressure will stay over the mid-Atlantic through midweek. A second weak frontal boundary will move into the mid-Atlantic late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over PA while a frontal boundary has become stationary over the Carolinas. That is providing the focus for showers/thunderstorms along the mountains of wesern NC. Question will be how quickly that moisture/convection is able to work north into our forecast area. Believe it won`t be very quickly, although the sky will experience increasing cloud cover as the day progresses. That said - the best chances of precipitation in the LWX forecast area will be in central VA/the Highlands. Highs today will be in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLoudy skies tonight courtesy of moisture advection on WSW flow. There is a big difference in PoPs between the MET and MAV, with the MET the more bullish. The HRRRX is portraying scattered activity primarily across the southern part of our forecast area. This is the tact we`ll take - with chance PoPs over the south/slight chance north. Lows mainly in the upper 60s, except warmer in the cities/along the Bay. Chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms Tuesday as a short wave moves through the region. The first taste of tropical activity in the western Atlantic - Gert, will stay well offshore. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday night and Wednesday should be dry as high pressure works into the region. Wednesday should see temperatures climb into the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Seasonably warm to hot summer weather is expected for the latter half of the week, with some cooling heading into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure overhead Wednesday night will give way to the next low pressure system that will approach and move across the area in the Thursday-Friday time-frame. This will bring an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms along with more humid and warm to hot temperatures as highs may approach or exceed 90F. High pressure and some cooling temperatures/lower humidity will then build in behind the front for the weekend with highs dropping back off into the 80s. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Monday through Wednesday. Best chance for showers/ thunderstorms will be near CHO. Predominantly VFR is expected Wednesday night through Friday with potential for brief periods of reductions in isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... No problems foreseen on the waters through midweek. Sub-SCA conditions expected Wednesday night and Thursday with a developing light southerly flow. South winds will increase Thursday night and Friday ahead of a frontal system, and Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...MM/ABW MARINE...MM/ABW

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