Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 151944 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass through the region this morning. High pressure builds overhead through Friday and then remains nearby into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front has moved east of the I-95 corridor and gusty northwest winds have begun. Isolated/scattered showers will continue this afternoon as lapse rates steepen during peak heating. Temperatures have risen into the mid 30s in the mtns to the mid 50s across I-95. Snow showers are expected in the mtns and rain or snow showers expected east. Visibilities may suddenly drop in snow showers however sfc temperatures will result in no accumulation especially on roads. Gusty northwest winds will continue this afternoon with some gusts up to 35-40 mph mainly along the front. Upslope snow showers will begin this afternoon and intensify this evening as saturation is best in the SGZ along the Allegheny Front. Accumulating snow is expected with 2 to 4 inches expected across western Grant and western Pendleton counties. 1-3 inches expected elsewhere along the Allegheny front. Subsidence starts to play a role into Thursday morning and snow showers will begin to improve and end in the morning. A winter weather advisory is in effect for W Grant/W Pendleton tonight through Thu morning. Further east...snow showers can not be ruled out tonight. The snow squall parameter shows the potential for streamers to move east of the mtns and across northern MD. Coverage seems limited however will need to be watched closely with temperatures dropping into the 20s. A dusting is possible in streamers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Snow showers will taper off by Thu afternoon however strato-cu deck is expected through the afternoon. Cool conditions expected Thursday with temps staying mostly in the 30s/L40s. High pressure briefly moves overhead Thu night resulting in a cool night with temperatures in the 20s. Another shortwave trough will drop west of the region into Friday and clouds will likely increase across the region Friday. Temps will rise back to normal Friday afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A low pressure system over the Southeast U.S. will gradually spread some moisture northward into the mid-Atlantic region Saturday. There is a slight chance of rain showers Saturday night in association with the advecting moisture. High pressure will build into the region Sunday through Tuesday. Dry conditions and mild temperatures will evolve during this stretch of time. By late Tuesday and Tuesday night, a cold front should sag across the region and then stall overhead Wednesday. There is a chance for rain showers later in the afternoon Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday in association with the front. Temperatures will be seasonable.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Gusty winds will continue at the terminals today. NW winds 15-25 sustained with gusts up to 35 knots expected this afternoon. Gusty winds will likely persist this evening with the higher gusts across BWI/MTN. Prevailing VFR conditions expected across the terminals through Thursday however iso-sct RA/SN showers are possible mainly tonight. Brief periods of reduced vsbys are possible however confidence is very low to pinpoint showers. Best chance would be MRB/IAD. Vfr conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds southwest 5 knots Saturday becoming west-northwest 5 knots Saturday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday through Sunday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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A cold front will cross the waters this afternoon. Gusty NW winds expected with gusts in the mid 30s. A Gale Warning is in effect today through Thu morning. Isolated to scattered showers are expected across the waters this afternoon and may cause a sudden increase in winds as well. Gusty winds will continue on the waters through this time however a lull is possible overnight especially across the Tidal Potomac. Strong mixing will pick up again Thu morning. SCA headline in effect through Thursday evening. SCA may need to be extended further into Thursday night for portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Winds abate early Friday as high pressure builds overhead. Winds anticipated to be mostly 10 kt or less this weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Light winds ahead of a cold front have resulted in higher than normal tidal anomalies. The high tide at Straits Point in St. Mary`s county will be very close to minor flood stage at their high tide late this afternoon. As NW winds increase anomalies will decrease prior to the high tide. It will be close and need to be monitored.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ501-505. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until noon EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HSK/KLW MARINE...HSK/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSK

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