Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 929 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON SATURDAY. ALL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO SCOUR REMAINING CLOUD COVER LEADING TO A PLEASANT SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND LIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ONLY TO HUG THE COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY IN PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SOLAR HEATING WILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... E FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE N FOR SATURDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND HUG THE COAST...KEEPING A SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN BREEZY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...KRW SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CEB/KLW/KRW MARINE...CEB/KLW/KRW

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