Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 271931 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 331 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving cold front will progress through the forecast area tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front near the Carolinas and track offshore on Thursday. High pressure will build to our south on Friday. Multiple upper level disturbances will pass overhead this weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure is now located in the vicinity of Hudson Bay, with a developing occluded front extending eastward across eastern Canada, and a long cold front extending southward out of Quebec, stretching all the way southward to the Gulf. Moisture continues to stream northward in advance of this front/downstream of large scale troughing over the center of the CONUS. The cold front is currently located just to the west of our forecast area, and will continue to make very slow progress eastward throughout the night. Rain will continue through the night to the east of the Blue Ridge within the warm/moist advection regime aloft just ahead of the front. There may be temporary breaks in the rain at times, but multiple waves of light to moderate rain appear likely. The threat for elevated thunderstorms appears to be decreasing, as the ongoing precipitation shield has largely stratified out, but a stray storm still can`t be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon. Rainfall totals through tonight will range from little to nothing to the west of the Blue Ridge, to near an inch across southern Maryland. Patchy fog and/or some drizzle may also be possible at times. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with low temperatures in the 40s for most.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The broad upper trough to our west will start to make a bit more eastward progress tomorrow. A shortwave embedded in the base of the trough will also start to take on a negative tilt as it moves over the southeastern US. This will cause an area of low pressure to form along the front near the Carolina Coast. This area of low pressure will track northeastward out into the Atlantic tomorrow night. Rain will continue for many locations to the east of the Blue Ridge during the morning, before tapering off through the afternoon hours. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the cold front, and may gust to around 20-30 mph, especially during the afternoon hours. Clouds will likely hold on to the east of the Blue Ridge through the afternoon, but clearing may start to the west of the Blue Ridge prior to sunset. High temperatures will be in the 50s for most, with 40s in the mountains. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow night as the coastal low pulls away from the area. The lone exception will be in the mountains, where a few snow showers may be possible as a disturbance descends down the backside of the trough. Any accumulations in the mountains tomorrow night would be minimal (a coating to an inch at the very most). Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in the mountains, to the mid 30s to near 40 further east. Low pressure will track toward the Canadian Maritimes on Friday as high pressure simultaneously builds to our south. This will lead to a strong pressure gradient and gusty northwesterly winds across the area. Skies will be mostly sunny, and high temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the lower to middle 60s across Central Virginia. Gusts of 30-45 mph should be common, and it`s possible that some mountain locations may near Wind Advisory criteria.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front will settle near the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. The front will likely stall through Monday across the area. This in turn will likely bring increasing clouds as well as occasional rainfall. Rainfall amounts should remain fairly low given the lack of moisture and synoptic forcing with this system. Best chances for precipitation would be along the I-66 corridor and points northward. Winds will likely be gusty Saturday, especially along the Allegheny Front due to a strengthening pressure gradient over the area. Wind Advisories may be needed if the trend continues with the strength of the winds for that afternoon. Additionally for the weekend, with increasing warm air advection in place, temperatures will warm up into the 60s for most areas on Saturday with 50s for the mountains. By Sunday, even warmer air arrives on southerly flow, allowing highs to soar into the low 70s across portions of the area, especially central VA. Rain chances drop during the day on Sunday before additional moisture arrives Sunday night into Monday morning. A secondary frontal system arrives Monday, ahead of an approaching low pressure system expected to impact the area through midweek. Precipitation chances increase each day through Wednesday. The warmest day of early next week will likely be Tuesday, where highs are expected to reach the low to mid 60s for most areas aside from the mountains, where mid 50s will be more common.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ceilings remain IFR or low-end MVFR this afternoon at all terminals, and winds are light out of the southeast. IFR conditions and light southeast winds are expected to persist through the night. Rainfall is ongoing at all terminals except MRB and CHO, and should continue through the night. IFR conditions and rain will continue at most terminals through tomorrow morning, with gradual improvement back to VFR expected tomorrow afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly tomorrow, and remain northwesterly on Friday. Winds may gust up to 30-45 mph during the day Friday. Sub-VFR restrictions may occur Saturday and Sunday, especially north of KCHO, where the best chances for precipitation are. Winds will be gusting 20 to 30 knots at times out of the southwest on Saturday before turning more northwesterly by Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds today will be light (around 5-10 knots) out of the southeast. A cold front will cross over the waters tonight, leading to a wind shift to north-northwesterly winds tomorrow. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters tomorrow into tomorrow night. Winds are expected to further increase in northwesterly flow during the day Friday. Gale Watches remain in effect for all waters during that time. Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Saturday, especially in the central open water of the Chesapeake Bay. Gusty winds continue on Sunday which may warrant SCAs to be extended for the remainder of the weekend. No other marine hazards are expected for the weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tides will remain elevated tonight, with Coastal Flood Advisories in effect for most locations. A cold front will move through late tonight, causing winds to turn north-northwesterly tomorrow. This should lead to a reduction in anomalies and gradually lowering water levels. Flooding may remain possible with the tide cycle during the day tomorrow, but thereafter waters levels are expected to remain below minor flood stage.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016- 018. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ508. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ054. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ053- 055-057-527. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543. Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJP NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...ADM/CAS AVIATION...KJP/ADM MARINE...KJP/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP

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