Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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000
FXUS61 KLWX 271931
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
331 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving cold front will progress through the forecast area
tonight. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front near
the Carolinas and track offshore on Thursday. High pressure will
build to our south on Friday. Multiple upper level disturbances will
pass overhead this weekend into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure is now located in the vicinity of Hudson Bay, with
a developing occluded front extending eastward across eastern
Canada, and a long cold front extending southward out of Quebec,
stretching all the way southward to the Gulf. Moisture
continues to stream northward in advance of this
front/downstream of large scale troughing over the center of the
CONUS. The cold front is currently located just to the west of
our forecast area, and will continue to make very slow progress
eastward throughout the night. Rain will continue through the
night to the east of the Blue Ridge within the warm/moist
advection regime aloft just ahead of the front. There may be
temporary breaks in the rain at times, but multiple waves of
light to moderate rain appear likely. The threat for elevated
thunderstorms appears to be decreasing, as the ongoing
precipitation shield has largely stratified out, but a stray
storm still can`t be ruled out through the remainder of the
afternoon. Rainfall totals through tonight will range from
little to nothing to the west of the Blue Ridge, to near an inch
across southern Maryland. Patchy fog and/or some drizzle may
also be possible at times. Temperatures will remain mild
overnight, with low temperatures in the 40s for most.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The broad upper trough to our west will start to make a bit more
eastward progress tomorrow. A shortwave embedded in the base of
the trough will also start to take on a negative tilt as it
moves over the southeastern US. This will cause an area of low
pressure to form along the front near the Carolina Coast. This
area of low pressure will track northeastward out into the
Atlantic tomorrow night. Rain will continue for many locations
to the east of the Blue Ridge during the morning, before
tapering off through the afternoon hours. Winds will turn
northwesterly behind the cold front, and may gust to around
20-30 mph, especially during the afternoon hours. Clouds will
likely hold on to the east of the Blue Ridge through the
afternoon, but clearing may start to the west of the Blue Ridge
prior to sunset. High temperatures will be in the 50s for most,
with 40s in the mountains.
Dry conditions are expected tomorrow night as the coastal low
pulls away from the area. The lone exception will be in the
mountains, where a few snow showers may be possible as a
disturbance descends down the backside of the trough. Any
accumulations in the mountains tomorrow night would be minimal
(a coating to an inch at the very most). Low temperatures will
range from the upper 20s and lower 30s in the mountains, to the
mid 30s to near 40 further east.
Low pressure will track toward the Canadian Maritimes on Friday
as high pressure simultaneously builds to our south. This will
lead to a strong pressure gradient and gusty northwesterly
winds across the area. Skies will be mostly sunny, and high
temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to
the lower to middle 60s across Central Virginia. Gusts of 30-45
mph should be common, and it`s possible that some mountain
locations may near Wind Advisory criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front will settle near the Mid-Atlantic region
over the weekend. The front will likely stall through Monday across
the area. This in turn will likely bring increasing clouds as well
as occasional rainfall. Rainfall amounts should remain fairly low
given the lack of moisture and synoptic forcing with this system.
Best chances for precipitation would be along the I-66 corridor and
points northward. Winds will likely be gusty Saturday, especially
along the Allegheny Front due to a strengthening pressure gradient
over the area. Wind Advisories may be needed if the trend continues
with the strength of the winds for that afternoon. Additionally for
the weekend, with increasing warm air advection in place,
temperatures will warm up into the 60s for most areas on Saturday
with 50s for the mountains. By Sunday, even warmer air arrives on
southerly flow, allowing highs to soar into the low 70s across
portions of the area, especially central VA. Rain chances drop
during the day on Sunday before additional moisture arrives Sunday
night into Monday morning.
A secondary frontal system arrives Monday, ahead of an approaching
low pressure system expected to impact the area through midweek.
Precipitation chances increase each day through Wednesday. The
warmest day of early next week will likely be Tuesday, where highs
are expected to reach the low to mid 60s for most areas aside from
the mountains, where mid 50s will be more common.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ceilings remain IFR or low-end MVFR this afternoon at all
terminals, and winds are light out of the southeast. IFR
conditions and light southeast winds are expected to persist
through the night. Rainfall is ongoing at all terminals except
MRB and CHO, and should continue through the night. IFR
conditions and rain will continue at most terminals through
tomorrow morning, with gradual improvement back to VFR expected
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly tomorrow, and
remain northwesterly on Friday. Winds may gust up to 30-45 mph
during the day Friday.
Sub-VFR restrictions may occur Saturday and Sunday, especially north
of KCHO, where the best chances for precipitation are. Winds will be
gusting 20 to 30 knots at times out of the southwest on Saturday
before turning more northwesterly by Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds today will be light (around 5-10 knots) out of the southeast.
A cold front will cross over the waters tonight, leading to a wind
shift to north-northwesterly winds tomorrow. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for all waters tomorrow into tomorrow night. Winds are
expected to further increase in northwesterly flow during the day
Friday. Gale Watches remain in effect for all waters during that
time.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Saturday,
especially in the central open water of the Chesapeake Bay.
Gusty winds continue on Sunday which may warrant SCAs to be
extended for the remainder of the weekend. No other marine
hazards are expected for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tides will remain elevated tonight, with Coastal Flood
Advisories in effect for most locations. A cold front will move
through late tonight, causing winds to turn north-northwesterly
tomorrow. This should lead to a reduction in anomalies and
gradually lowering water levels. Flooding may remain possible
with the tide cycle during the day tomorrow, but thereafter
waters levels are expected to remain below minor flood stage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016-
018.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
MDZ508.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ054.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ053-
055-057-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday
for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday
for ANZ534-537-543.
Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
for ANZ534-537-543.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...ADM/CAS
AVIATION...KJP/ADM
MARINE...KJP/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP