Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KLWX 251543 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1043 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO PROBS THIS AFTN W/ HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH U30S/L40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WE BLV WE`LL BE FCSTG ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FURTHER N W/ THE FAST MOVG SRN STREAM LOW LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. ATTM ADVISORIES RMN AS IS...BUT BLV THE PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR BTWN FREDERICKSBURG AND BALT WL BE BTWN ~4AM AND 9AM. THIS WL LKLY LEAD TO THE ADVSRY BEING XPANDED FURTHER N...ESPCIALLY GIVEN THE LOWER REQUIREMENTS DURG THE MRNG COMMUTING TIMES. ST. MARYS STILL LOOKS TO BE RCVG THE HIGHEST TOTALS...AS MUCH AS 4". THE FARTHER N AND W YOU GO THE LOWER THE TOTALS ARE XPCTD TO BE. PRVS DSCN... MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF REACHING AT LEAST 2 INCHES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE...AND THE UPPER LVL FORCING PIVOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...HAVE THE PCPN TAPERING OFF OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS BY MID MORNING THURS...WITH LINGERING PCPN OVER THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTN. COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURS AFTN OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH WESTERLY FLOW COMBINING WITH A DECENT PASSING SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN UPSLOPING SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN HALF AN INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS VERY INCONSISTENT FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ALL WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO NOT EXPECTING A P-TYPE ISSUE. SIDED WITH THE COOLER MET/MAV BLEND ON TEMPS FOR THURS...KEEPING EVERYWHERE MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHICH COULD SEE THE LOWER 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN INTRUSION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA THU NGT- FRI. WHILE THERES NOTHING SPECIFICALLY THAT JUMPS OUT...LLVL CAA... MID LVL PVA...RATHER AMPLE MEAN-LYR MSTR...AND A TAIL OF THE UPR LVL JET ALL SUGGEST LOTSA CLDS AT A MINIMUM. IF ITEMS ALIGN APPROPRIATELY...THEN FLURRIES PRBL AND A SHSN OR TWO PSBL. WENT A LTL MORE AGGRESSIVE ON POPS THU EVE /STILL CHC/...AND SCALED IT BACK OVNGT INTO FRI MRNG. IN THE BIG PICTURE...BLDG HIPRES SUGGESTS THAT THE ODDS FOR PCPN WL BE DIMINISHING THRU THE PD...AND WL BE HIGHLY UNLKLY BY FRI NGT. H8 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE NEG TEENS /AGAIN/ SUGGEST THAT SHSN WUD BE THE ONLY PTYPE TO CONSIDER. NO CONFIDENCE WRT ACCUMS. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...SUPPOSE ITS PSBL. CERTAINLY WONT BE ADVERTISING THAT AS A PART OF A DETERMINISTIC FCST. ARCTIC HIPRES WL BE KEEPING WX QUIET THRU SAT NGT...ALBEIT COLD. NO BIG CHGS IN TEMP FCSTS. MAXT STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV FRZG...ALTHO SAT HAS A SLGTLY BETTER CHC. MIN-T DOWN IN THE TEENS AND LWR 20S. RADL COOLING AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER AREA SAT MRNG IMPLY THAT SINGLE DIGIT OR SUBZERO LOWS PSBL W OF I-95. DEEP MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE XTNDD PERIOD BUT ABATE SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF OVERRUNNING/PERHAPS MIXED P-TYPE EVENTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODERATING AIRMASS ALOFT MOVES OVER RESIDUAL COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FOR A TREND IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW...WITH SUB- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. ALL SITES COULD SEE A PD OF SUB-VFR CONDS...PSBLY APRCHG IFR AT CHO/DCA. OUTLOOK... THU NGT-FRI MRNG...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAY BE SOME FLURRIES...AND WUDNT OUTRIGHT RULE OUT FLGT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHSN. FRI AFTN-SUN MRNG...VFR. SUN AFTN...MAINLY VFR..ALTHO CIGS SHUD BE LWRG AS PCPN CHCS INCREASE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE ISSUED A SCA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. N/NWLY FLOW WL PREVAIL THU NGT-FRI. ATTM MIXED LYR DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT SCA CONDS. WIND FIELD INCREASES FRI NGT...AND THEN RELAXES AGN BY SAT AS HIPRES BLDS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ017. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ508. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ025-036-037-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ050-056-057. WV...NONE. MARINE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ537. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-536. && $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...APS/HTS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.