Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS
TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL
THEN LIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN BATCH OF PCPN HAS MOVED N/NE OF CWFA. IN THE CLEARING IN
ITS WAKE...SCT TSRA HV DVLPD. THESE STORMS FORMED IN A WARM/UNSTBL
AMS...BUT ARE ENTERING A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE THE THUNDER ASPECT TO ERODE...BUT SHREA SHUD BE ABLE TO
TRACK ACRS CENTRAL VA. HV MAINTAINED CHC POPS MINIMUM...AND GRDLY
NUDGE THEM UPWD INTO THE ELY EVNG.

HGTS WL BE RATHER ZONAL AND STABLE OVNGT...W/ ANY PVA GNLY N OF
CWFA. THERES NOT MUCH TO DRIVE ADDTL PCPN PRODUCTION...OTHER THAN
THE OVERRUNNING PTTN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...LLVLS REMAIN MOIST. WL
HOLD ONTO CHC POPS BUT SWITCH TO A RADZ SOLN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ZONAL H5 FLOW/ELY SFC FLOW WL CONT INTO FRI...AS S/WV ENERGY
TRACKS EWD N OF CWFA. CHC POPS PREVAIL...HIEST NEAR THE PA BRDR.
DONT BELIEVE PCPN WL BE ALL THAT MEANINGFUL.

WL HV WEAK RDGG IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV FRI NGT. THIS IS THE BEST
CHC AT A DRY PD FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. AFTER LINGERING EVNG POPS...
PRESERVED 10 POPS/PATCHY DZ WORDING FOR THE OVNGT HRS.

WAA/ISENT LIFT IMPRV SAT-SAT NGT AS AN AMPLIFIED TROF AXIS IN THE
SRN PLAINS EJECTS TWD CWFA. POPS WL BE STAIR-STEPPED UPWD AS THIS
FORCING APPROACHES. LKLY SHRA BY SAT NGT. IT CUD BE ERLR PENDING ANY
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER GDNC RUNS.

CWFA WL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE STALLED BNDRY THRUT THIS PD.
TEMPS REFLECT A MDL BLEND/PERSISTENCE TYPE FCST...WHICH CAPTURE THE
LACK OF DIURNAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIFTING NORTH ON SUN... MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING
SHOWERS TO OUR CWA. THE LOW PRESS WILL TRACK EAST AND MOVE OFF OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON... WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TUE TO WED NIGHT
CONDITIONS... WITH GFS BEING DRIER... BUT BRINGING SHOWERS DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUE... WHILE EURO KEEPS A BOUNDARY STALLING
TO OUR SE AND WAVES OF LOW PRESS MOVING THROUGH IT... THEREFORE
KEEPING MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLGT CONDS SHUD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THRU SAT-- MAINLY MVFR BUT
PDS OF IFR...SPCLY AT NGT. PCPN POTL REMAINS HIT-OR-MISS. FRI NGT
MAY END UP BEING THE DRIEST PART OF THIS FCST...BUT THAT MAY ALSO
MEAN THE FOG CUD BE THE DENSEST. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN-EVE SAT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS FRONTS AND LOW PRESS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION... MAINLY SUN INTO MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW 10-15 KT ATTM...WHICH WL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT CPL
OF DAYS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDS THRU SAT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA. SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY SUN
INTO MON NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING AND AS HIDE TIDE AS
PASSED...WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE HIDE TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS...BUT FRIDAY MORNINGS CYCLE MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/HTS
MARINE...IMR/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJM



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