Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 241801 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 201 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...BUT A BKN CU DECK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT FROM THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ALSO FROM THE DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD MONDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID- MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AXIS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL SYSTEM SWINGS EAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHERN STREAM CANADIAN TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND PUSHES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH THIS FROPA BEFORE COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS FRONT RETREATS AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR KMRB AND KCHO. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE...
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EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT INCLUDING THE TANGIER SOUND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF TIDE CYCLES...MEANING TIDAL ISSUES WILL LINGER. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT WATER LEVELS WILL BE NEAR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SINCE THAT WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY TO ST MARYS...AND FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NEAR WASHINGTON DC AND ALEXANDRIA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANOMALIES FOR PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY AROUND NATIONAL HARBOR AND FOR BALTIMORE AND HARFORD COUNTIES...BUT WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW THE HIGHER MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WERE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS FOR TUE MORNING EITHER.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ017-018. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...BJL SHORT TERM...AEB LONG TERM...AEB AVIATION...BJL/AEB MARINE...BJL/AEB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

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