Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 131837 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Irma will move across the Ohio Valley today and into Pennsylvania Thursday. High pressure will return to our region during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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Have been watching a lot of clouds on satellite today - those in the Mid Atlantic which are post-warm front in what has almost become a damming pattern on the east side of the mountains. But these are slowly eroding away - the fact that the highest temperatures this afternoon are occurring in the far western part of the forecast varea where breaks have developed. Believe the erosion will continue though the afternoon. And we`re also looking at the clouds associated with the "last gasps of Irma" which is now a low pressure area over KY/IN/OH. This will advance to the east tonight, and will bring a chance of showers to the Highlands this evening...progressing to I-95 late tonight. Lows primarily in the 60s, 50s farthest west, around 70 by the Bay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday the low will become an open wave over PA bringing chances of rain to the entire area; the farther north in the forecast area the better the chances will be. QPF is expected to be 1/4 inch or less. Highs 75 to 80. Shower chances will be decreasing Thursday evening as the wave tracks into New England. Skies should be clearing late. Lows in the lower to mid 60s east of the mountains...mid to upper 50s west. There won`t be any front sweeping the moisture away Thursday night and Friday, so would not be surprised to see fog development Thursday night and Cu development Friday. Still - these should both be dry. Highs Friday again around 80. No problems expected Friday night either - lows in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will remain centered near the New England Coast for the weekend through the middle portion of next week. An upper-level ridge is most likely to remain overhead during this time as well. Subsidence from the upper-level ridge will allow for temps to remain above climo during this time. Areas of low clouds and fog are possible during the overnight and morning hours each day due to low- level moisture associated with a northeast flow. A couple popup showers are possible as well...but coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered due to the upper-level ridge in place. Will continue to watch Jose out in the Atlantic. There is a possibility that it could affect the east coast of the United States during the middle portion of next week...and this would obviously have an impact on our forecast. For the latest information regarding Jose...please refer to the National Hurricane Center`s website hurricanes.gov.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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On visible satellite it can be seen that clouds are thinning from the south. TAF sites should see improvement through the remainder of the afternoon. Fog is possible late tonight at IAD/MRB/CHO. Clouds should lower during the afternoon from DC north along with chances for rain. This will continue into Thursday evening. Clearing is expected after midnight which could set up fog development Friday morning. High pressure most likely remain over the area Saturday through Monday. Areas of low clouds and fog are possible during the morning hours each day Saturday through Monday...otherwise VFR conditions are most likely.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds to remain below SCA values through Friday. High pressure will remain over the waters for Saturday through Monday. Marine hazards are unlikely during this time. Continuing to watch Jose out in the Atlantic. This has the potential to impact the east coast of the United States...but not until the middle portion of next week. For more information regarding Jose...please refer to the National Hurricane Center`s website hurricanes.gov.
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&& .COASTAL FLOOD...
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Water levels have been slowly rising on the easterly flow. Straits Pt, Annapolis, and Southeast DC expected to reach minor flood levels with the high tide cycle tonight. .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL

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