Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 021458 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1058 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NSSL WRF- ARW AND NCAR ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE CONVECTION TIL ABOUT 20Z-21Z. MORNING RAOBS AT ABERDEEN AND DULLES SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THAT WILL STILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME WITH MAXT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CINH REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT DULLES. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SEVERE WX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW CLOUDS REMAINING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT THINNING OUT SOME ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-66. USING A 24-HR TREND FOR TEMPERATURES FROM VARIOUS MODELS AND APPLYING TO YDAY`S HIGH BRINGS HIGHS TO NEAR 80F SOUTHERN AREAS...MID 70S AROUND DC AND ONLY MID 60S IN NORTHEAST MD. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE OVER CHARLOTTESVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG AND SOUTHERN MD. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE SFC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WV ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. RAIN/SHOWERS APPEAR DEFINITE TONIGHT WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION TUE MORNING. FCST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER POPS TODAY AND INCREASE POPS TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE XTND PD WL BE THE UPR TROF SITUATED OVR THE NERN U.S. WED NGT-FRI. THIS WL ENSURE XTNSV CLD CVR FOR THE AREA ALONG W/ CHCS FOR RAFL. HIGH TEMPS - IN THE 60S...WL BE ABT TEN DEGS BLO NRML FOR ERLY MAY. LOW IS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE NE SAT...BRINGING A RETURN VISIT FM THE SUN. AFTN HTG COULD BRING A CHC OF RW/TRW SAT. A CD FNT MAY PUSH THRU THE RGN SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY BUT DROP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN RAIN. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED MARGINAL CONDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE SHOWERS. XTNSV CLD CVR WL BE IN THE FCST OVR THE MID ATLC WED NGT- FRI...SUB-VFR CIGS MAY BE PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MAY WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA LVLS DURG THE SECOND HALF OF THE WK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...LFR/ABW MARINE...LFR/ABW

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