Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280723 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 323 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday. Weak low pressure may affect the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region for midweek. A cold front may push through the region at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... Like the past two days today will be warm with afternoon showers/ thunderstorms possible over the mountains. High pressure off the coast remains in control today pushing warm air into the region. Highs again in the upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Another warm night can be expected as well. Lows in the 60s...possibly around 70 in the cities. After tonight the forecast becomes more interesting. NHC shows a tropical depression about 300 miles SE of coastal SC. This looks to slowly track NW and into SC Sunday night...spreading moisture northward along the east coast. Sunday aftenoon and night look to be the best times for rain...with the eastern parts of the forecast area having the highest POPs/QPF. Increased cloud cover will lead to lower high temps...but still around 80. This storm is still not very well organized...and rainfall totals are very much in question. Depending upon track over an inch will be possible I-95 and east but confidence is low at the moment. Later shifts will have updated guidance to hone totals/location in better. It appears that the low should be whisked out to sea Monday providing for clearing skies. Highs in the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Given the current forecast track of the tropical system, the local area will be under the influence of slightly-building ridging on Tuesday. With several runs of consensus now pegging a dry day, our forecast will go in that direction as well. Can`t totally rule out isolated terrain-induced convection along the Central Blue Ridge, but not worth mentioning at this point. Models showing easterly flow developing with increased moisture on Wednesday. 00z GFS develops convection mainly in the western half of the forecast area, while the 12z ECMWF was dry for that time period. Ultimately the location of the tropical system at that time will likely play a role in which solution turns out correct. Leaning toward the drier solution however. Either way, the upper ridge begins to break down by Thursday, allowing rain chances to increase in the Highlands and dropping high temps a bit. A cold front approaches by Friday with an even better chance of rain and temperatures finally returning to near normal. There are definite signs in the models of an upper pattern shift back to an eastern CONUS trough by the end of the forecast period; however, I don`t yet see strong signals of the cold, dreary weather of much of May returning just yet. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions today and tonight. Cigs could drop into MVFR range at the major airports Sunday afternoon..continuing Sunday night. Improvement is expected again Monday. VFR conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... No problems expected on the waters today or tonight. Rain expected to overspread the waters Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Improving conditions expected Monday. Generally light winds and dry conditions expected for much of the extended forecast period over the waters. Southerly channeling may begin to develop Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/JE

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