Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KLWX 280723
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
323 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday.
Weak low pressure may affect the region Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region for midweek.
A cold front may push through the region at the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Like the past two days today will be warm with afternoon showers/
thunderstorms possible over the mountains. High pressure off the
coast remains in control today pushing warm air into the region.
Highs again in the upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another warm night can be expected as well. Lows in the
60s...possibly around 70 in the cities.
After tonight the forecast becomes more interesting. NHC shows a
tropical depression about 300 miles SE of coastal SC. This looks
to slowly track NW and into SC Sunday night...spreading moisture
northward along the east coast. Sunday aftenoon and night look to
be the best times for rain...with the eastern parts of the
forecast area having the highest POPs/QPF. Increased cloud cover
will lead to lower high temps...but still around 80.
This storm is still not very well organized...and rainfall totals
are very much in question. Depending upon track over an inch will
be possible I-95 and east but confidence is low at the moment.
Later shifts will have updated guidance to hone totals/location in
It appears that the low should be whisked out to sea Monday
providing for clearing skies. Highs in the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Given the current forecast track of the tropical system, the local
area will be under the influence of slightly-building ridging on
Tuesday. With several runs of consensus now pegging a dry day, our
forecast will go in that direction as well. Can`t totally rule out
isolated terrain-induced convection along the Central Blue Ridge,
but not worth mentioning at this point.
Models showing easterly flow developing with increased moisture on
Wednesday. 00z GFS develops convection mainly in the western half of
the forecast area, while the 12z ECMWF was dry for that time period.
Ultimately the location of the tropical system at that time will
likely play a role in which solution turns out correct. Leaning
toward the drier solution however.
Either way, the upper ridge begins to break down by Thursday,
allowing rain chances to increase in the Highlands and dropping high
temps a bit. A cold front approaches by Friday with an even better
chance of rain and temperatures finally returning to near normal.
There are definite signs in the models of an upper pattern shift
back to an eastern CONUS trough by the end of the forecast period;
however, I don`t yet see strong signals of the cold, dreary weather
of much of May returning just yet.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions today and tonight. Cigs could drop into MVFR range
at the major airports Sunday afternoon..continuing Sunday night.
Improvement is expected again Monday.
VFR conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
No problems expected on the waters today or tonight. Rain expected
to overspread the waters Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Improving conditions expected Monday.
Generally light winds and dry conditions expected for much of the
extended forecast period over the waters. Southerly channeling may
begin to develop Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.