Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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419 FXUS64 KLZK 060551 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1251 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Showers and storms will linger across the area through the evening hours before activity starts to exit in the wake of the H500 wave lifting to the northeast. Some FG development is possible around daybreak. Warmer temperatures are expected across the state on Monday with highs climbing above 80 F in many locations. Little to no precip is expected earlier in the day and if the sun makes an appearance, it will feel quite uncomfortable outside given recent rain and Td values around 70 F. A weak disturbance in the SW flow aloft will help provide increased chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours. More widespread severe activity is expected to be focused across portions of OK/KS from Monday afternoon through the evening hours. This activity will likely persist in intensity eastward through the overnight hours and could provide some severe potential early Tuesday morning across W/NW parts of the state. Behind the storms, the front will sink south toward Arkansas. Additional thunderstorms could develop throughout the day Tuesday ahead of the front as well as along any lingering boundaries in place over the area. POPs on Tuesday are highest during the morning hours with lower POPs in place later in the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to move out of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. This storm system will drag a cold front across the state bringing the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be somewhat of a two prong event. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The main event will come Wednesday evening and night as the front moves into the state. Instability and wind shear will be much higher on Wednesday. This will bring a better chance of heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes. QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas. Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 SHRA/TSRA activity was departing the state to the E with skies beginning to clear in its wake from the S and SW. Expecting a low-level stratus deck to develop in addition to FG where clearing takes place. Widespread IFR/LIFR conds are expected overnight with conds improving between 14z/16z on Mon. Winds will be Srly at around 10-15 knts on Mon with conds improving to MVFR/VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 69 86 68 / 30 60 30 20 Camden AR 83 68 87 69 / 40 20 10 10 Harrison AR 80 64 83 62 / 20 70 10 10 Hot Springs AR 82 67 85 67 / 40 50 10 20 Little Rock AR 84 70 87 71 / 40 50 20 20 Monticello AR 84 71 88 72 / 30 20 20 10 Mount Ida AR 81 67 85 67 / 50 50 20 20 Mountain Home AR 81 65 84 63 / 30 60 20 10 Newport AR 82 69 84 68 / 30 50 30 30 Pine Bluff AR 84 70 87 70 / 30 30 20 20 Russellville AR 83 67 86 66 / 30 60 10 20 Searcy AR 83 68 85 67 / 30 50 20 20 Stuttgart AR 83 70 85 71 / 30 40 30 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...70