Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 070247
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-071800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT HAS BEEN PROLONGED IN THE PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
THIS WINTER. CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY WORSENED AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD GIVEN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR
LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND
D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID FEBRUARY 3RD 2015...
INDICATED D1 /24 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D2 /6 PERCENT COVERAGE/
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS
INCLUDED AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PARAGOULD /GREENE COUNTY/...
BENTON /SALINE COUNTY/ AND HELENA-WEST HELENA /PHILLIPS COUNTY/.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS HAVE BEEN FEW SINCE NOVEMBER.
STORM SYSTEMS WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAVE TENDED TO BYPASS
THE REGION. RECENTLY...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
AND TEXAS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
MAINE.

AROUND HERE...THREE TO FIVE INCH PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE
RACKED UP IN MOST AREAS. IN PARTS OF THE EAST...DEFICITS WERE
SIX TO MORE THAN EIGHT INCHES.

PRECIPITATION FROM NOVEMBER 1ST 2014 THROUGH JANUARY 31ST 2015...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   6.25        -4.06          61
HARRISON /NC AR/       6.15        -3.84          62
JONESBORO /NE AR/      6.18        -6.92          47
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     6.11        -4.43          58
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     8.32        -5.46          60
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   6.26        -8.29          43
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     10.04        -3.23          76
EL DORADO /SC AR/     11.33        -3.04          79
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     7.96        -6.07          57

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THERE WAS A MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN 59 /OF 75/ COUNTIES
AS OF FEBRUARY 6TH. THERE WERE NO BURN BANS POSTED.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE/...
BUT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL /10TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE/ WHERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE IDENTIFIED IN THE EAST.

ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES...SITES REPORTING NORMAL STREAMFLOW
/25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE/ WERE DWINDLING. MOST SITES HAD
SUBPAR LEVELS /10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE/...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS /LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE/ SPRINKLED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

IT MUST BE MENTIONED THAT THESE INDICES ARE SLOW TO DETERIORATE
BECAUSE VEGETATION IS DORMANT. AS PLANTS EMERGE IN THE SPRING AND
CONSUME GROUND WATER...DETERIORATION WILL BE MORE RAPID IF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE.

FORECAST...

NO RELIEF IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH DATA SHOWING
A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS
/WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING...AND THAT MAY INFLUENCE WHAT IS TO COME
IN THE SPRING.

IN THE PAST SIX EL NINO EPISODES...PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY...

EL NINO YEAR     SPRING /MARCH THROUGH MAY/ RAIN        DEPARTURE

2010                         12.25                       -2.71
2007                          9.55                       -5.41
2005                          9.55                       -5.41
2003                         11.48                       -3.48
1998                         12.43                       -2.53
1995                         14.40                       -0.56

THE LATEST OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR
CONTINUE WORSENING AND COVERING MORE REAL ESTATE THROUGH APRIL.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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