Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 192151
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-201200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017

...SEVERE DROUGHT IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET SUMMER IN ARKANSAS...THE RAIN SHUT OFF DURING THE
FALL. MORE THAN A DOZEN SITES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE HAD THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE SITUATION HAS
NOT IMPROVED IN THE WEEKS TO FOLLOW.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID NOVEMBER 14TH 2017...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /74 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D2 /46 PERCENT
COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS AFFECTED
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ WAS DEVELOPING DURING THE FALL. THIS OFTEN RESULTS
IN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND
THAT IS WHAT HAS TAKEN PLACE LOCALLY.

IN NOVEMBER /THROUGH THE 16TH/...RAINFALL WAS BELOW AVERAGE PRETTY
MUCH STATEWIDE. IT WAS ESPECIALLY DRY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT
FAYETTEVILLE /WASHINGTON COUNTY/...FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN COUNTY/...
LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER 2017 /THROUGH THE 16TH/...

SITE                         AMOUNT   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/           0.42      -1.89        18
HARRISON /NC AR/               0.69      -1.65        29
JONESBORO /NE AR/              0.98      -1.37        42
FORT SMITH /WC AR/             0.26      -2.16        11
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/             0.41      -2.29        15
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/           1.47      -1.07        58
TEXARKANA /SW AR/              1.53      -0.93        62
EL DORADO /SC AR/              1.47      -0.96        60
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/             0.24      -2.23        10

FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 16TH /77 DAYS/...FOUR TO MORE
THAN EIGHT INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE COMMON. PRECIPITATION WAS
25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OR LESS IN PLACES SUCH AS JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD
COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON
COUNTY/. AT THESE SITES...UNDER THREE INCHES OF LIQUID WAS MEASURED.

PRECIPITATION FROM SEPTEMBER 1 - NOVEMBER 16 2017...

SITE                         AMOUNT   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/           5.78      -5.68        50
HARRISON /NC AR/               3.73      -6.36        37
JONESBORO /NE AR/              2.41      -7.26        25
FORT SMITH /WC AR/             3.55      -7.24        33
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/             2.23      -8.56        21
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/           5.16      -4.43        54
TEXARKANA /SW AR/              4.29      -6.53        40
EL DORADO /SC AR/              3.73      -7.00        35
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/             2.00      -8.16        20

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

AS OF NOVEMBER 16TH...THERE WAS A LOW TO MODERATE WILDFIRE
DANGER ACROSS ARKANSAS. NO BURN BANS WERE POSTED IN ANY
COUNTIES.

WHILE THIS WAS ENCOURAGING...SOIL MOISTURE WAS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. VALUES IN
MUCH OF THE OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/ WERE IN THE 20TH PERCENTILE
OR LESS /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/. VALUES WERE BELOW
THE 10TH PERCENTILE IN SPOTS.

STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS SUBPAR AT MOST SITES...
BUT WAS ESPECIALLY LOW IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. VALUES IN THE
SOUTH/WEST WERE IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE...BUT LESS THAN
THE 10TH PERCENTILE AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS /25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/.

FORECAST...

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVEMBER INTO
EARLY DECEMBER LOOKS DRY. BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL IS IN THE FORECAST.

MOVING FORWARD...A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE
EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ IS EXPECTED DURING THE WINTER AND
INTO THE EARLY SPRING. GIVEN THIS...COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY VISIT
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LESS THAN USUAL...AND STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE LESS THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IF THIS
COMES TO FRUITION...THE DROUGHT IN ARKANSAS WILL WORSEN.

ASSUMING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DECLINE...THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW.
VEGETATION IS GOING DORMANT AND CONSUMING LESS GROUND WATER.
THE PROCESS WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN THE SPRING IF SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE...AND VEGETATION COMES
BACK.

THE OUTLOOK THROUGH FEBRUARY OF 2018 CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST LOCALLY...AND DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTPS://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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