Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 290353
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-291800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 PM CST SUN JAN 28 2018

...MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET SUMMER IN ARKANSAS...THE RAIN SHUT OFF DURING THE
FALL AND A DROUGHT DEVELOPED. AT SEVERAL SPOTS...IT WAS THE
DRIEST FALL SINCE RECORDS BEGAN MORE THAN A HUNDRED YEARS AGO.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME RELIEF THIS WINTER...BUT THE DROUGHT CONTINUES.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID JANUARY 23RD 2018...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /67 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D2 /31 PERCENT
COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS...WITH D3 /2 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN
A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ BEGAN DEVELOPING IN THE FALL. THIS OFTEN RESULTS
IN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND
THAT IS WHAT HAS TAKEN PLACE LOCALLY.

SO FAR IN JANUARY /THROUGH THE 25TH/...MONTHLY PRECIPITATION WAS
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH BELOW AVERAGE /50 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL/
AT MOST PLACES.

PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY 2018 /THROUGH THE 25TH/...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      1.63      2.31      -0.68         71
HARRISON /NC AR/          2.47      2.08      +0.39        119
JONESBORO /NE AR/         2.13      2.67      -0.54         80
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        1.55      2.24      -0.69         69
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        1.51      2.88      -1.37         52
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      2.67      3.28      -0.61         81
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         2.36      2.72      -0.36         87
EL DORADO /SC AR/         2.98      3.39      -0.41         88
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        2.54      3.00      -0.46         85

THERE WAS POSITIVE NEWS IN DECEMBER. THE STATE WAS POUNDED WITH
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE 16TH THROUGH THE 22ND. SEVEN DAY TOTALS THROUGH
600 AM CST ON THE 23RD INCLUDED 7.25 INCHES AT PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON
COUNTY/...6.88 INCHES AT LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...6.35 INCHES
AT WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN COUNTY/...6.03 INCHES AT TEXARKANA
/MILLER COUNTY/...5.27 INCHES AT MONTICELLO /DREW COUNTY/...AND 5.03
INCHES AT HOT SPRINGS /GARLAND COUNTY/. THIS WAS ONE OF THE WETTEST
WEEKS IN ALL OF 2017 ACROSS ARKANSAS.

FOLLOWING THIS HUGE EPISODE...LIQUID FOR DECEMBER WAS ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE BY ONE TO MORE THAN TWO INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE NORTH...WITH SUBPAR RAINFALL /BY LESS THAN AN
INCH AND A HALF/ AT FAYETTEVILLE /WASHINGTON COUNTY/...FORT SMITH
/SEBASTIAN COUNTY/...HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/...AND JONESBORO
/CRAIGHEAD COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER 2017...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      1.91      3.24      -1.33         59
HARRISON /NC AR/          1.88      3.20      -1.32         59
JONESBORO /NE AR/         4.02      4.77      -0.75         84
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        2.28      3.29      -1.01         69
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        7.74      4.97      +2.77        156
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      7.65      5.42      +2.23        141
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         6.59      5.05      +1.54        130
EL DORADO /SC AR/         5.63      5.18      +0.45        109
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        8.28      5.44      +2.84        152

BEFORE THE FIRST DROP...THERE WAS A HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER AND BURN
BANS WERE POSTED IN 70 /OF 75/ COUNTIES. THE WILDFIRE CONCERN HAS
SINCE DECLINED A LOT. THE DROUGHT STATUS FOLLOWED SUIT...WITH PERCENT
COVERAGE OF SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ DROPPING FROM 87 PERCENT TO
31 PERCENT...AND EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ GOING FROM 25 PERCENT TO
2 PERCENT /AS OF JANUARY 23RD/.

THE DROUGHT CAME TO LIFE DURING A VERY DRY FALL. FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST
THROUGH NOVEMBER 30TH /91 DAYS/...SIX TO TWELVE INCH RAINFALL
DEFICITS WERE COMMON. PRECIPITATION WAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE AT JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI
COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/. AT THESE SITES...UNDER
THREE INCHES OF LIQUID FELL.

PRECIPITATION FROM SEPTEMBER 1 - NOVEMBER 30 2017...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      6.47     13.38      -6.91         48
HARRISON /NC AR/          3.83     11.98      -8.15         32
JONESBORO /NE AR/         2.43     12.22      -9.79         20
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        3.57     12.81      -9.24         28
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        2.24     13.37     -11.13         17
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      5.17     12.00      -6.83         43
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         4.29     13.18      -8.89         33
EL DORADO /SC AR/         3.73     13.19      -9.46         28
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        2.01     12.52     -10.51         16

IT WAS THE DRIEST FALL ON RECORD AT MONTICELLO /DREW COUNTY/...
MOUNT IDA /MONTGOMERY COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/...AND
RUSSELLVILLE /POPE COUNTY/. RECORDS AT THESE SITES GO BACK TO THE
1870S AND 1880S!

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

AS OF JANUARY 26TH...THERE WAS A LOW TO MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER
IN ARKANSAS. NO BURN BANS WERE POSTED IN ANY COUNTIES.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY IN THE OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST. VALUES IN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE 10TH TO 20TH PERCENTILE
/30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/. VALUES WERE BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. SIMILAR VALUES WERE FOUND
TOWARD THE LOUISIANA BORDER.

STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS LOW IN THE NORTH
AND WEST. VALUES AT MULTIPLE SITES WERE IN THE 10TH TO 24TH
PERCENTILE...AND LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE AT A FEW
GAUGES /25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/.

FORECAST...

IN THE SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH BELOW AVERAGE FOR
JANUARY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST TWO OR THREE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER...
SYSTEMS WILL TEND TO COME FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET BECOMES
INVOLVED...AND MORE GULF MOISTURE IS REALIZED...THEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD RESULT. FOR NOW...BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

MOVING FORWARD...A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE
EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY SPRING.
THIS PATTERN OFTEN RESULTS IN LESS THAN USUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. WET WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...AND SOME OF THIS MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT
AREAS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING DROUGHT
RELIEF TO PARTS OF THE STATE.

IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS STICK AROUND...ANY WORSENING WILL BE SLOW.
VEGETATION IS GENERALLY DORMANT AND CONSUMING LITTLE GROUND WATER.
DROUGHT WILL DECLINE MORE QUICKLY IN THE SPRING IF SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE...AND VEGETATION COMES BACK.

THE OUTLOOK THROUGH APRIL CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO EXPAND
AND WORSEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...AND PERSIST LOCALLY. IF
THERE IS DROUGHT RELIEF IN ARKANSAS...IT IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTPS://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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